Sep

3

Japan, from Larry Williams

September 3, 2014 |

Friends in Japan tell me there are going to inflate big time and expect stocks there to rip to the upside.

Charles Pennington writes: 

I'm going to bet with Larry. Japanese stocks (as sampled by etfs like EWJ [large caps] and SCJ [small caps]) are trading at around 1 times book value, 4 times cash flow, and 14 times earnings, and that's going to look attractive when free money gets thrown around. Rocky made this point in early 2013 right before a big rally, but what he said then is still true.

anonymous writes:

One of the largest economic myths is that Japan has been in economic cellar.

John Floyd writes: 

DXJ is a good way to play as it takes out the exposure of being long the Yen, should the Nikkei and USDJPY indeed go up. On a timing issue I think there are 2 key points to take in:

1. Structurally, unlike previous announcements and moves since the late 1980's the current move to end the economic malaise is much more entrenched and has wider breadth both from political and social support and the actual measures being using (the 3 arrows). Remember it was the stated intent of the BOJ in the late 1980's to deflate the stock market, they succeeded all too well.

2. Cyclically, Japan's economic growth is likely going to be lower than the BOJ is forecasting while inflation is also going to be lower than they think. However, it seems that the BOJ will not be revising its economic forecast until October and it will be sticking to its policies till then, but is likely to have increase QE prior to year end.

Gary Rogan writes: 

I don't understand how it's possible to to predict the effect on the Japanese stocks of this one factor. Earlier this year Japan raised its consumption tax from 5% to 8%. Last time anything like this happened was in '97 when it was raised from 3% to 5% and caused the economy to slip back into a recession. I don't think Larry believes that recessions matter for stock prices, but that's an arguable point. Also, Japan as an export economy cannot afford to inflate the cost of its exports, so you gotta believe that the price of Japanese stocks in dollars can't rise too much assuming there is anything like a recession or just economic doldrums. Someone mentioned hedging the yen exposure, and that may be the way to go. I'm also concerned that China is getting out of hand with the US walking around with a "Peace Now" sign. I any case, a single-factor analysis seems like something too simple for this situation.
 

Edward Talisse writes: 

I lived in Japan for a long time. It is very tough for non yen based investors to make money in Japanese stocks. The Nikkei tends to rise only when the yen depreciates, so any rise in stock gets offset with currency losses. Japanese stocks are all about corporate governance issues rather than financial metrics. Shareholder activism is rare and companies are usually loathe to reward shareholders with dividends or buybacks.

Obviously anything can happen. Last year N225 was up 57% and Yen was down about 30% and I am sure many are happy to have banked net 27% …but it was still below the S&P which returned 32%. Personally, I am routing for a big win in Japan and I hope the people there succeed. It just tough to make money. If you believe in the reflation story, it may be easier to just short the Yen and forget about stocks. Shorting JGBs should be avoided. All the bonds are domestically held and the BOJ buys whatever the MOF issues.

Lastly the story put forth here that Japan did not or has not suffered a lost couple of decades is at odds with my experience. There are people sleeping on the streets in Tokyo just like in NYC and senior citizens are in a deep pinch due to a lack of income on their savings.

Charles Pennington adds: 

Everybody hates the yen!

I was surprised to learn that the yen (as of July) is 24% undervalued based on the Big Mac Index.

anonymous writes: 

That makes sense, range has been -30 to 0 for past decade or so, and from semi recent travels on comparative basis the cost of hotels, coffee, noodles, etc. has not really changed much in 25 years, real interest rates have been comparatively high.

Alston Mabry writes: 

And at the same time, the surprising thing is that New Zealand is more expensive than Japan.

Peter Tep writes:

Wait until you see prices here in Australia. You will easily spend $20 a meal for a basic lunch, whatever cuisine have you and a drink. Dinner runs double that sans vino.

Public transport costs here are stupid as well as the parking costs. If you were out of town and were Parking in underground park for corporate lunches etc, you are looking at $30/hour.

Personally for me I travel some 15kms to work on the bus which costs me about $12/day. Mind you wages here are running higher I suppose with baristas (coffee makers) earning some $20+/hour. Friends of mine in the 20-30 age group pay $150-300/week in rent for a room in trendy inner city suburbs.

Just perspective for those interested in on ground prices!

anonymous writes: 

Peter, Thanks for the rundown on Australian prices, but they don't sound expensive compared to Silicon Valley.


Comments

Name

Email

Website

Speak your mind

2 Comments so far

  1. Benjamin Chua on September 3, 2014 2:43 pm

    @ Edward Talisse: how bout just using the nkd futures? now you can collect your gains in dollar. dividends are minimal anyway. just that you gotta roll if it’s taking longer than expected

  2. Helmholtz on September 8, 2014 1:18 pm

    > DXJ is a good way to play as it takes out
    > the exposure of being long the Yen

    > Someone mentioned hedging the yen exposure,
    > and that may be the way to go

    > it may be easier to just short the Yen

    Sounds like consensus to me… time to do a little something? For future reference, JYZ4== 94.30 as I write.

Archives

Resources & Links

Search