May
4
Thoughts on the Fed Model, from Victor Niederhoffer
May 4, 2011 |
I have been asked what I think about the fed model these days. Here's my answer: pretty positive.
The earnings price ratio is still way 2 percentage points ahead of the 10 year rate which is very bullish empirically. Of course with the odds of the trigger man now 100% to win, we can expect great increases in the service rate, which I believe should be factored in some way. Probably the reason that 08 went down so much. Of course, the reason the market went down so much was to force him not to raise.
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