Feb

1

Farm Journal had a good article on the tightening wheat supplies.

Their contention that milling quality wheat is getting scarce (but not to 2007 levels) and the market reflects this, resulting by the ever expanding Chicago/Mgex wheat spread. The resulting scarcity of high protein milling wheat has caused all contracts of Minneapolis Wheat to trade at a premium to Chicago. A few months ago, Chicago Dec 2011 was trading at a 5 cent premium to Minneapolis, which was an anomaly as every other contract of Minneapolis wheat was at a premium, except Dec 2011. As Minneapolis wheat normally trades at a premium to Chicago (Quality trumps everything and transport and storage are basically a wash), Chicago trading at a premium to MGEX can mean a good trading opportunity, but one must be very careful. It can also mean ruin if the mistress of the market continues her irrational behavior as evidenced by the Dec 2007 debacle that bankrupted many traders caught on the wrong side. Right now, in the wheat market, the seven wild cards are the next crop (there is a wheat crop harvested somewhere on the planet every 3 months), China's demands, our other exports, what Russia will do, the dollar's value, and acreage yields, and numbers of acres planted.

(As a side note, the government's directives might result in a reduction of wheat acreage like 2007 in order to plant more corn for ethanol, but this is speculation and not fact as of yet) However, supplies of Chicago's lower protein wheat are not very tight as evidenced by the front month, March, trading at a 30 cent discount to May. If there was a tight supply, the front month would trade at a much higher price, possibly even a premium, to shake some wheat out of storage to accommodate immediate needs.

The milling wheat on the other hand is only trading at a 6 cent discount in the front month suggesting much tighter supplies. From a practical standpoint, I am noticing a substantial increase in the price of pasta at the grocery store, and fewer markdowns on a retail level.My milling contacts also are mentioning substantial price increases in the near future. Still, this upward drift of the entire wheat market is rather confusing as the fundamentals somewhat support the rise, but there's something else going on beyond the mere fundamentals. I'll leave it up to others above my pay grade to ascertain and explain the intricacies of the market.

Meanwhile, I will try to make it safely to port without any damage. My mea culpa here is that 8 months ago I was of the opinion that while there might be a slight upward drift in the wheat market, it would be orderly and negligable and I saw no real rally unlike other sagacious members of the list. I even reported this on Daily Speculations, on Jan 26th. Larry Williams was the hero of the day when he said, "Wheat is set up to rally." Kudos to Larry, and a hairshirt for me…. I was so wrong, but still providence was with me when I decided to not try to buck the ever rising market and keep my longs.. Thinking of all the times I have been completely wrong, (and I keep very exacting records) it's amazing that I have managed to stay afloat and am not working the overnight shift at the 7/11.

Larry Williams writes:

I hate to disagree with a trade journal, but my stuff is bearish on wheat at this time.
 


Comments

Name

Email

Website

Speak your mind

Archives

Resources & Links

Search