Nov

9

The "greatest" stock market bull run began in 1982, and in the subsequent five years, the Dow Jones increased by roughly 2.7x. The bull was interrupted by the October 1987 crash (36%), and it took almost exactly two years for the Dow Jones to reclaim its previous record high. The prologue from 1989 to 2000 needs no recounting.

The current commodity bull run began in 2003, and in the subsequent five years, the CCI Index (Continuous Commodity Index) increased by an eerily similar 2.7x. This rally was interrupted by the commodity crash of 2008 (42%), and it's taken a eerily similar two years for the CCI to reclaim its previous record high. The prologue of the current commodity bull market has not yet been written.

Lest you accuse me of sounding like Jimmy Rogers, please note that I do not speak with a Southern Drawl (nor do I wear bowties.) I do, however, note that EVERY modern easing cycle has been coincident with some asset prices achieving prices where one rubs one's eyes and exclaims, "Darn– why didn't I own more of THAT stuff!!

"The story doesn't change. Only the Bloomberg quote symbol.


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