Nov

1

The not-so-rare rare earth story story is a great example of a not-so-rare viral meme that will disappear faster than the unrealized profits in the market caps of the companies that are being bid up on the story. It's got all of the ingredients for a viral meme: "frightening" shortage, embargo, Chinese conspiracy, Wall Street promoters, "critical" for windmills and jet engines, etc.

If one wants to productively obsess about "shortages"– a much more serious danger is that the earth's viable HELIUM supply is being exhausted quickly. Although most people think helium is the life of the party (balloon), it's widely required by industry, science, and medicine. Because it is only about 5 parts per million in air, the only economically viable source of HE sits underground in salt domes in the boring Great Plains. No embargoes, Chinese conspiracy, Wall Street promoters here. But probably a much greater long-term problem that won't make the front page of the NY Times.

One can sensibly conclude that a "bubble" in Helium producers would make vastly more sense than the lead balloon which Rare Earth companies will prove to be.

Here's a Scientific American Story from June 2010. Google "helium shortage" for lots more information…


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