Oct

10

While the most important "skill" in the prediction game is not to make any outright predictions that can be disputed, it's important to know how to weasel out of anything that can be interpreted as an actual prediction gone wrong. While listening to a nationally syndicated market analysis show on the radio while driving this morning, I noted a few used with great finesse:

1. Blame unexpected behavior of the stock market on the price of oil. While a prediction was made on the same show two weeks ago that both oil prices and the stock market would fall dramatically, they still found it possible to blame the rise of the stock market on the boost given by the falling oil prices.

2. Emphasize with an air of sophistication that one should never be "all in" or "all out". While some poor sucker called in to complain about the results of shorting market futures based on the shows advice, he was reminding that those who advocate being all in or all out are "poker brokers", whatever that means, and that one should hedge and cut back only a little when feeling bearish. Generalize to not behaving like the unnamed practitioners of whatever technique is currently not working.

3. Stress that while the prediction was generally sound "the timing" was off.

4. Stress that while the previously mentioned Elliot wave practitioner who shared his vision of doom and gloom is the best in the business, the general direction of markets is up.

5. Never apologize or admit you were wrong in so many words.

6. Don't ever be shy in stressing how important it is to be in the market during the expected move up, when just recently all you were saying how important it is to be cautious when the markets are poised for a downfall.

7. Even after saying the above, never skimp on emphasizing caution.

This was all heard during a 15 minute drive.


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