Oct

13

The thread on potential started by my partner of 40 years would benefit from quantification of the chess proverb, appropriate for this list since Dan's father was New York State number 2 and won a game from Alekhine which the Grandmaster reviewed, "The threat is worse than the execution". I would suggest that a double top is a threat, and it's bullish, and a double or x bottom is a threat and it's bearish. Also, a big move within the day which subsequently fails tends to be confirmed…and that companies tend to go up before a favorable earnings announcement (not after) and similarly show a tendency for going down before seeming bearish economic announcements. The threat of a political calamity is always bearish and when it happens it's bullish. Any accepted hypothesis that the market can't go up because of some such inanity as was populated by the bifurcated is another horse from the same garage and this can be quantified in Popperian terms as well as threat execution terms. a rich purview.

Mr. Albert responds:

As a day trader, much of my method relies on a healthy mental state. So for me, often, the execution relieves the worries stemming from the perceived threats. Two example are:

Many times I have felt that I couldn't afford to take another loss; that the next loss would be career ending. And after trading the entire day and still losing money, I found that I was not wiped out, and that I could still come back the following day.

Another 'psychological' example is that I notice that my trading is often more defensive (make less, lose more) as the time for estimated tax payments approaches. Once I take the hit and draw my account down to pay, I'm back to normal.

In terms of market indicators, in the very short term, the threat can be a large block appearing in the order book. Initially, the price may move away from the block. But if the price starts moving toward the block then the large block is not a threat but an opportunity and it's appearance provides a great tell as to the strength of the move.


Comments

Name

Email

Website

Speak your mind

Archives

Resources & Links

Search