Oct

17

The Quake, by James Sogi

October 17, 2006 |

While relaxing in bed early Saturday morning catching up on all the lost sleep during the market week which starts at 3 am here, I heard a rumbling, then the whole houses started shaking violently, more and more, and it kept going for a full 30 seconds, which felt like forever. A few minutes later a second one started shaking. I watched the ceiling beams as they are a good 12 inches across, but being bolted in place did not budge. I’m pretty used to these shakers and in ‘75 went through a 7.8 which actually threw me out of my bed. (I thought had drunk to much) . The house is built on solid blue rock which was chipped out to make room for the house and gardens and to prevent earthquake damage. It is solid. The book cases are bolted to the walls. Some friend a few miles north, closer to the epicenter had all the glass ware broken, pantry and refrigerators emptied, televisions smashed, and foundation shaken off their piers. Rock walls along the road crumbled. The power and Internet went out. It emphasizes of the need for generator back up, and alternate connectivity if this had happened during market hours during a big trade. No excuses in the market. But all in all, it was not as bad as dramatized in the press.

I had scheduled water quality testing to check for any ocean pollution levels that morning on the boat, but the beaches were closed to possible threat of tsunami. I am surprised there was none, but the seas were confused and choppy. In any case, I happened to have my surf board on the car ‘just in case’ so took the boat out to the same beach that was closed, a very popular and crowded surfing spot, and had beautiful big waves all to my self. This shows several things. Having the right tools, the knowledge, and the ability to take a calculated but safe risk, where the public is basically panicking for unfounded reasons, It is important to have good data, especially data that other people don’t have, and the ability to derive inferences from that data that give an edge. It gives tremendous opportunity for the strong and brave who are prepared. to derive inferences from that data that give an edge. In this case the reward was nice waves to myself. The market analogies are clear to me now after several years with this august list of now good friends.

Two days ago, a harbinger appeared, a water spout offshore, basically a tornado sucking water up into the sky A few days prior flooding and torrential rains. All interesting developments against the backdrop of a blow off market. Turbulent times. Reference Ed Spec on weather and markets. Everything is connected in ways unknown in complex systems. But despite the complexity, it is good to have a rudder and a reference to navigate by.

But all in all, other than a tipped over book case in the library with all the old unwanted ‘lose-more-than-you-have-right-to-books”, (which I have taken the opportunity to throw out) no damage here.

P.S. Follow up on the Quake, clustering etc… Last night on the way to see Momix, there were huge thunderstorms and hail the size of dimes! I wondered if these things earthquakes, tornadoes, floods, thunderstorms, hail, nuclear bombs, drops in the market are related in some causal way. Does the weight of the rain or underground tests cause shifts in unstable tectonic plates or generate static electricity?


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