Jul

14

The entire so called world energy demand/shortage, oil prices, gasoline prices, refinery maintenance on and on back and forth with the back drop of global warming impending doom, can't be too far off Y2k and tech. I am not comparing the two in bubble logic and anecdotes, like CISCO traded over 500 billion in market cap and crashed, therefore XOM reaching 500 billion is a tell. What is wild is back in 2002, it was stated perhaps the money flows might go to the Euro and real estate.

When to buy stocks is always a topic in the press. When to sell is obviously as interesting. How high oil prices, oil stocks down the food chain will spike up, then down at the inevitable end of the cycle is on one hand fun to watch. On the other the re-balance in the S&P 500, will it be fast and furious or as long and drawn out as the housing meme?

The housing meme was a pretty nice floor on stocks over the years. The gist was and is that the rapid rise in housing was ruinous. Once prices fell back to reality it would cause a recession. People seemed to be fighting the rise and seeking out contagion.

Oil and energy is seemingly a bit different. The gist of this meme is global growth, Hubert's peak and no available new supplies-ever, therefore energy is a long-term, as in forever bullish until it runs out. Yet the prices perhaps have yet to hit highs where the short sellers call a bubble. Or is it?

Who is the John Chambers of oil? In booms how is demand always overstated? In booms why is supply never estimated to grow fast enough? How many memes must overlay to create a tremendous boom in prices? There were many for tech, from the new economy to Y2k to create a boom for stock prices. For energies are the current memes enough?


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