Jun

5

This weekend we visited Waimanu, one of the most beautiful spots on earth, accessible only by ocean, or a daunting exhausting six-hour 11-mile hike up and down cliffs. The valley is deserted with a river running down the middle surrounded by 2,000-foot cliffs and a gorgeous 2,000-foot waterfall cascading into a clear pond.

We swam out with our gear through the surf at Waipio Valley and met my best friend and his boat outside the surf line and climbed aboard. We set out the fishing lines and trolled for ono. Outside the valley he hooked up a 25-pound ono that was to be the barbecue for the night. We swam in all the supplies to the camp site.

Meanwhile, while we were fishing, his boys ages 11 and 14 gathered coconut husks, ironwood needles for tinder, twigs and small sticks to get the fire started. After we let the wood burn down to a mass of red embers, that is the perfect time to start barbeque. Open flames are no good unless you like blackened fish, and you can't wait too long or the embers will die out.

We did not bring a saw to cut the branches so they stuck out of the fire. When we came back at dark they had a nice fire going. We filleted the fish into chunks and put on salt, pepper, some French herbs and some butter. We used plain soy sauce on the cooked fish. The smoky flavor from the fire was delicious with rice and salad. We even had rocky road ice cream for desert thanks to dry ice in one of the coolers.

It was much more deluxe traveling by powerboat than by Hawaiian canoe. That night the blue moon was bright and full. Sleeping in our Lawson Hammock tents kept us comfortable, dry, off the hard ground. During the May season the trade winds die off, so there were no waves and no wind making beaching through the surf less life threatening. During the perfect blue days we explored some of the other deserted oases like Lapahoehoe Nui, a small shelf below huge cliffs with waterfalls falling on it. We dove in the clear water among fish.

A few thoughts of statistics and the markets during the weekend concerned linearity and randomness. Our course, as typical of any endeavor on the ocean, and with my best friend, is never linear. We never go in a straight line from point A to B, always weaving, back and forth, in and out with the tides, up and down in the water to breath, dive, breath, but always making some progress, surviving and having a great time in the process.

In the Jonathan Raban book, Passage to Juneau, A Sea and its Meaning, he talked about how the European settlers could not understand the Indians on the water. They would never go in a straight line, but would wander about, loiter, talk, fish, go this way and that. They did not understand the under currents, the eddies, the unseen forces carrying the boats in and out, the tides, the surges, the forces of underwater rock formations. This is like the market. It never is linear and rarely takes a straight line. When it does, like the recent bull market, you don't expect it. Always up and down, back and forth, fits and starts, backing, surging, stopping for air.

Another thought came watching the wake of the boat and the surface of the ocean and the clouds in the sky. They constantly vary in random patterns, but taken as a whole system they are very organized with the smaller random variations taken as a coherent surface pattern. Above the small surface patterns are larger groundswells that travel through and then even larger tidal shifts. Beyond that there are larger evolutionary shifts slowly eroding the island away, the slow rise of the sea. These are a perfect metaphor for our markets, and if seen in the proper perspective may aid in the quest to see and make sense of the market.


Comments

Name

Email

Website

Speak your mind

Archives

Resources & Links

Search