Jul

20

First the chart. The two data sets are of different magnitude, so to compare them they must be normalized. The chart represents the slope of the data divided by the trend of that data. Both are determined by regression over 12 months. Each point on the chart is effectively the expected rate of change of the data as determined by the moving trendline. As such, the data is NOT lagged, and presents a truer picture than that of lagged data.

Interpretation. Periods of higher part-time employment tend to coincide with recessions. However, if the employment picture is recessionary, then how would one explain the growth in Payroll Tax Receipts, which I have shown separately? Well, it turns out that the growth from January to June in Part-time employment matches the growth in Payroll Tax Receipts. Thus, the economy is growing solely by the increase of part-timers.

Zubin Al Genubi writes:

Many young people I know do gigs, seasonally or part time. Recent employment numbers (with temp way up and full-time way down)support the theory.

Humbert H. adds:

I’ve seen a lot of information on part-time vs full-time. Often it’s accompanied by foreign-born vs native-born, where the dichotomy is similar, in favor of the foreign-born.


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