May

24

It's been 44 years since the introduction of the 3-point line in the NBA. To me, it's a curious case of slow adaptation. Of course, you have new generations of players growing up shooting the 3, but surely players in the early 80s were capable of learning and practicing. The low number of 3s seems like a failure of analysis, failure to understand the impact on points-per-possession, which wasn't much of a moneyball concept yet.

Also, early on it was pretty much just guards who shot the 3 well, with the big exception of Larry Bird. But now, lots of players 6-10 or taller shoot 3s with considerable accuracy. To me, this is more an issue of assumptions, that big men couldn't shoot from long. And then some big men put in more practice and showed they could do it, opening up the possibilities.

Interesting how there are thresholds people believe can't be crossed…until somebody crosses them…and then lots of people are running sub-4-minute miles.

The 3-Point Revolution, by Stephen Shea:

A gimmick? A publicity stunt? That’s what many thought of the 3-point line when the NBA adopted it for the 1979-80 season. Back in 1979, Washington Bullets coach Dick Motta commented, “The three-point field goal will definitely make things interesting.” He meant interesting in the sense that a game that would have been over might now be sent to overtime by a desperation heave. Neither Coach Motta nor anyone else foresaw an NBA game played like it is today.

Five years after its inception, NBA teams were only averaging 2.4 three-point attempts (3PA) per game. This past season, James Harden alone averaged ten. Teams averaged 29.

[ More data on 3-point shooting. ]

Larry Williams comments:

Good point!! …like the 4 minute mile…and we can only beat the averages by a few points…

Vic wonders:

what adjustments have markets been slow to adapt to in last 5 years?

Big Al adds:

An interesting sidebar from 2017:

The Basketball Team That Never Takes a Bad Shot
The NBA’s most efficient offenses seek out layups and threes. A high school in Minnesota takes the idea to the extreme.
By Ben Cohen

PINE CITY, Minn.—Jake Rademacher made a mid-range jumper in a recent high-school basketball game. But as soon as the ball left his hands, even before it banked in, Rademacher knew it was a bad shot. And his team doesn’t take bad shots.

Pine City High School seeks out only the most valuable shots in basketball: from underneath the rim or beyond the 3-point line. They play as if they’re allergic to all the space in between.


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