Mar

13

I found this podcast episode very interesting.

Contextualization Within a Framework of Conditional Probabilities w/ Will Gogolak

As a risk officer with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Will Gogolak was setting margin requirements and saw a wide variety of traders’ accounts and what separated the winning traders from the losing ones, before leaving to pursue his own trading and obtaining a PHD in finance and share his knowledge of quantitative analysis and market experience with students at Carnegie Mellon University. Combining his market experience with knowledge of statistics helps William create his custom buy the dip strategy with futures and leveraged ETFs, and focusing on probabilities and determining market direction for informed trading decisions.

Peter Ringel agrees:

Love the hole series. Half of speclist was a guest.

Big Al offers:

Also very informative are these interviews with "Uncle Roy", on Top Traders Unplugged:

From 2014:
Part 1
Part 2

From 2023

Zubin Al Genubi comments:

Speaking of cognitive bias, I realize that if I feel bearish, so does everyone else. You have to go against how you feel and against the consensus.

Sam Johnson asks:

Do you need to go against the cognitive bias of how everyone FEELS or how everyone is positioning?

Zubin Al Genubi responds:

Don't most traders and their systems trade and position for that past regime? As Roy said, trend followers are all piled in at the turns and all will reverse at the same time. With the widespread use of systems everyone is doing basically the same trade. You can't get a fill after the turn as we saw last fall. You have to pre-position…be in position ahead of the enemy forces.


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