Aug

13

Inflation back up because fed has raised rates—when will they figure it out - high rates cause inflation.

William Huggins responds:

That's what Erdogan believed in turkey too but those beliefs crashed the lira. Rates (chosen) are a response to inflation (explicitly too).

Larry Williams replies:

Higher rates mean more money into the economy…hence inflationary.

John Floyd writes:

I think Larry probably has some careful thought or evidence behind this in and is not likely influenced by a Crucian Thanksgiving upcoming, MMT in the ‘hood or the like. I am not sure I agree given MV=PY, the collapse of M in the US, UK, Europe, rising financial stress, China headwinds, etc. But I would love to hear the other side.

Larry Williams responds:

MMT has some deep insights—rates cause inflation is one of them.

Stefan Jovanovich writes:

Apologies to all for what is another heretical comment from someone who thinks the United States lost its greatest advantage when it joined the other nations of the world in establishing a central bank as the issuer of sovereign currency IOUs. "Inflation" is always and everywhere a credit phenomenon; the supply of legal tender - the unit of account by which loans are measured - is never the cause. It is, as William implies in his remark about Turkey, the response; the hyperinflations in Germany, Zimbabwe and the moderately awful ones in Argentina and Turkey and elsewhere are not caused by money printing. The money is printed in response to the fact that the country's credit supply has been destroyed; all that is left is to run the rapid wheel of money supply. The prices for things have gone up because the Covid shutdown and regulations were the economic equivalent of a war; the regulations destroyed businesses (including our family office's last operating company; we formally dissolved at the end of last year because there was no reason left for us members to own securities collectively). The destruction reduced the supply; the transfer payments from Trump and Biden gave people the additions to their personal balance sheets that allowed them to spend more.

H. Humbert comments:

Only those with a lot of cash get more money, any new borrowers wind up with less money, and many potential borrowers are scared off by the high cost of debt. Do people with a lot of cash to begin with have a high propensity to spend their extra 2-3% after taxes, enough to compensate for the countereffects?

Larry Williams disagrees:

Wrong. The largest payer of rates is the Gummint -  it goes, one way or another to many. Soon I will post chart to prove point but look at Japan and low rates to inflation.

Nils Poertner writes:

we live in a predatorial world - in which inflation is obviously deliberately created to benefit some and hurt others. it still goes in cycles - eg EM fx and inflation - Turkish Lira and Brazilian Real the fx and inflation figures may go the other way - as in previous yrs…as those countries were pretty early w tightening and it is going backwards now.

Larry Williams responds [tongue in cheek?]:

That is so so wrong that someone causes inflation to hurt/help others.

Big Al posits:

Governments need inflation to reduce the future value of their present promises.

John Floyd writes:

There is a myriad more drivers in Japan both economically and culturally driving things. Debt, money velocity, ethos on bankruptcy, ethos on price hikes, demographics, zombification, lost decades. yes govt ownership of debt growth depends on whether money spent or saved.

While I on the topic, those are the headlines generally carried in Turkey and created the narrative; beneath that and related are many different ingredients that put Turkey where it is today, and those are the things to watch for a turn one way or the other; you can be sure the current leader is not going to do a public about face on the below causality belief system, but there are other things happening geopolitically and on the macro. I wrote in 2020 about the challenges; they are pretty much unchanged and give clues what to watch for.

Larry Williams responds:

Sure always drivers but some are race car drivers and mean more and as a general rule.

Stefan Jovanovich offers:

The NY Fed's definition of what they call Underlying Inflation

Their August 2023 reading of the UIG

Bud Conrad writes:

My views on what causes rising prices and declining purchasing power of the dollar:

I follow the simple axiom that inflation will rise when too much money is chasing fewer goods. (And the reverse). The rising quantity of money starts with Federal Government deficits: They print Treasuries to cover the deficit, borrowing new money they spend that exceeds taxes. Traditionally, the public would buy Treasuries to gain guaranteed interest. Banks did the same. When banks make loans they do that by printing money out of thin air given as new deposits at the banks for borrowers to spend; as for example in buying a house with a mortgage. As loans expand, money supply expands almost by definition. A few decades ago, much of Treasury issuance was bought by foreigners with the dollars they accumulated from their trade surplus from the US buying more foreign goods than it sold. The Trade Deficit became the support for the US government Budget Deficit. Foreigners took the dollars that exporters gained and exchanged at their Central Banks for local currency to pay workers, and the foreign Central Banks bought Treasuries. China and Japan had $1.3 trillion each in Treasuries backing their own currency issuance. But foreigners have begun to slow such purchases as they realize that the US dollar is not as good as gold. China has sold a third of its Treasuries, and Russia sold all of its holdings. So foreigners are not the buyers of our government debt now. They are trying to de-dollarize for both financial and political reasons, with the risk that if they turned to net sellers, they could drive rates higher. While domestic institutions provide some buying for themselves and customers, they are not big enough to cover all deficits.

In the current situation, of $ trillion deficits, the Fed becomes the "lender of last resort" that prints up new money to accommodate the new treasury issues, in the form of QE and expanding their balance sheet; which is accomplished by creating new deposits with which to buy Treasuries (and MBS). They increased the money supply, now by about $6 trillion since 2009. They supplied enough buying power that interest rates were kept low. Inflation as measured by consumer goods purchasing was commensurately low, because foreign consumer goods were manufactured in Asia at a wage rate of one fifth of the US. We could just print money to buy cheap goods. The government CPI is manipulated lower with hedonic substitution, calling technological improvements like more powerful computers as a decrease in price, and using rental equivalent housing prices. Their resulting measure of inflation is about half what it should be. Even more seriously: a comprehensive measure of what the dollar can purchase should include asset prices; namely stocks, bonds and accurate housing; and commodities like oil to be a more inclusive indication of changes in the purchasing power of the currency. We had low CPI but higher asset prices when the Fed forced rates below usual market levels, and that drove stock prices higher, (which is not included in the government inflation measure). In summary, the foreign expanded supply of goods kept CPI low, so inflation was below the expected growth in money alone might have indicated.

We are in a different world from before 1971 when international trade was settled in gold, and currency issuance was limited by having backup gold. Our government (and the rest of the world) are creating new deficits and new money at unsustainable levels. The expected new gold backed Currency from the BRICS is expected to replace the importance of dollars to world trade. Politically, the US dominance is declining with losing wars and over spending. Deficits will expand to cover the aging baby boomers demographics. The Fed will be creating trillions to buy the Treasuries to fund the deficits. This quarter Treasury funding is scheduled at $1 Trillion new money and Q4 is planned to be $800Billion (maybe more when the taxes slow in recession). There will be cycles, but the big move is to create new money by the government and banks which will decrease the purchasing power of the dollar in the decade ahead.

Summary differences from common beliefs:

1. Inflation starts from government deficits. (It is affected by many things, but this is the fundamental driver. (not wage push, consumer demand, price gouging, interest rates))

2. Cutting inflation requires less government deficit.

3. Raising interest rates by the Fed is not a very effective way to control inflation.

4. The Fed is forced to raise rates when government deficits and inflation rise; to keep the markets functioning so lenders get some real return. (Not the reverse)

5. We can get a slowing economy AND inflation together. With no anchor to the currency, this is the usual pattern and has happened a hundred times in many countries. (The opposite is expected in the Fed raising rates to fix inflation)

6. Inflation can go much higher than in 1980 when it hit 20%, because we have 120% Debt to GDP now, and it was 30% then. It took three waves.

7 Expect currency destabilization, inflation, and no deflation in the foreseeable future.

Zubin Al Genubi comments:

Credit creation cycle fuels inflation. As credit is given, asset prices go up at the margin. More collateral leads to more credit in a self reinforcing cycle. In contrast to financial assets, Prices of goods demand/supply curve is linear. Financial assets are convex crating booms busts. FED should focus on financial asset price not goods cpi.

John Floyd responds:

Look at money supply, fin stress indicators, consumer buying power info adjusted as savings rate is below pre Covid stimulus in many countries , etc…that will tell you a bit of odds of prospective future infl from demand side …supply side a bit trickier as reshoring, ESG govt led direction takes away Mr Smiths can’t see hand. Simpler equation is to ask how many times the CB’s get it right.

Stefan Jovanovich adds:

Goods can boom and bust because of the order cycle. Customers will double even triple orders on the upcycle and then threaten to pull them in the down cycle.


Comments

Name

Email

Website

Speak your mind

Archives

Resources & Links

Search