Apr

25

great books read over the weekend during my trip to Austin: Our Town by Thornton Wilder, The Road to Serfdom by F. Hayek, Mathematical Biology: I. An Introduction by JD Murray, Life of Francis Galton vol. 1 by Karl Pearson. reviews of each forthcoming.

But experience is often fallacious in ascribing great effects to trifling circumstances. Many a person has amused himself by throwing bits of stick into a tiny brook and watching their progress; how they are arrested, first by one chance obstacle, then by another; and again, how their onward course is facilitated by a combination of circumstances. He might ascribe much importance to each of these events and think how largely the destiny of the stick has been governed by a series of trifling accidents. Nevertheless all the sticks succeed in passing down the current, and they travel, in the long run, at nearly the same rate. So it is with life, in respect to the several accidents which seem to have had a great effect upon our careers.

- Francis Galton, Journal of the Anthropological Institute, 1875, p. 391.

volume 1 of Pearson's Life of Galton is devoted mainly to the great man's childhood, his ancestry especially on the mother's side, and his relation with his cousin Charles. It is a moving and memorable chapter. How did I come to read it over weekend?

it was my first wife's 80th birthday, and she managed to keep all the books and paintings. While the great personages among her friends passed by at the party hosted by my daughter Katie, I saw vol 1 on her copious book shelves and gave myself a treat by rereading it.

when i presented this painting at a Galton meeting in London, the speaker decried Galton's lack of Mathematical rigor and the tradition was "no feedback from the audience". Subsequently Stigler showed how nonsensical that claim was. It is interesting and telling that at a meeting designed to honor Galton, even his greatest followers were afflicted with shame. it is amazing how good mathematician can be so foolish when venturing out of his own field. the same is true when quants take a gambol on markets. and I would guess the same is true of chat gpt.

the big circular thing in the background is the cyclone imported from the Columbian exhibition of 1899. the cyclone is still packed even though the Dow had declined from 290 in 1929 to 70 today. the construction in the North is the Trapeze designed to give soldiers training.

my comments about sticking to your own last for math people was based on Murray's foray into psychology quantifying likelihood of marriage dissipating based on Gutman's work which is completely overdetermined et al.

David Margulies in his review of Our Town calls it the great American play. "it's all there, the passages of life." there's no scenery and no curtain. If you appreciate the commonplace and the wisdom and greatness of the common man or woman you will love this play. Although I had seen the play a few times, I never appreciated its greatness until I reread it this weekend. It inspires me to write a play based on my experience. "no curtain, that's Arthur Niederhoffer taking his physical test for being a policeman in 1937."

Road to Serfdom of 1942 is all too prescient. "the emphasis shifted from gov administered production activities to indirect regulation of private enterprises and to gov transfer programs." look at a typical day in gov control. no meat in nyc, no private money for everyone else.

"coordination of men's activities through central direction leads to serfdom. also central direction is a road to poverty." intro to Road to Serfdom.

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