Nov
10
Elections, big market moves, and fuddy duddies
November 10, 2022 |
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takeaways from the midterm: (1) fortunately for the S&P the senate wasn't reversed. (2) the betting odds were incredibly wrong for the 3rd election in row. (3) the senate probs switched from 75% r to 10% r in an hour. (4) the horse bet wisdom of waiting to bet near post time is shown.
second largest open ever up 120 big pts. only exceeded on 11-9 2020 when it was up 150 big pts at open. (how a little 0.1 change from expectations can create such big change. all we need is the useful idiot saying the fed must be resolute.)
it is fortunate for the outs that the D.O.L. is not responsible for the reporting of the CPI. if they tweaked it last month by 0.1 up, the outs would surely have lost both houses. with every market down about 20% from last month, was the 0.1 decline that surprising?
bonds at 124 at highest level since oct 17,2022. query: did the Commissioners at the fed forecast this and was that why they were adamant that bonds were going higher? stocks still at 20 day hi as 10-28 was 3948.
guaranteed to happen just like in the old days. when the buzz and media are most negative, time to buy, and the opposite. rite out of the books of the corners and propaganda of 50 years ago.
this is the second biggest rise ever in S&P, only 3-13 22 higher up 220 big. seems to be the greatest rise in wealth in one day ever as when bonds up 3 pts or more stocks were never up more than 100 big triumph of the optimists and proof that the market loves agrarian reformers.
alan abelson and the upside down man previously had the record for the worst advice on stocks of all time having lost hundred of billions for their followers. but their losses were over years. the fed people and their followers who have been beating the pessimistic drums. while it was guaranteed to happen, the question arises if they knew that such an increase in wealth was imminent, how many folks were induced to go into cash or reduce exposure to wealth because of their wrongful bearishness.
amazingly crude only up 0.60 after 5% decline in last 3 days. when the sun is shining , the agrarians make hay all around.
its the little things that the 3-letter agencies tweak that make the drift happen and get one off balance.
The Little Things You Do Together
i am thinking of the old fuddy duddies at the Metropolitan Club on 5th avenue who look out the window and cast dark grimaces at the Women with short skits and congratulate themselves on their disapproval and abstinence. The same must be true of all the governors at the Fed who have twisted all the weak longs out of stocks and bonds with their infernal pessimism and wrongful admonitions. Are they congratulating themselves like the boys at the Cosmopolitan?
the final shoe falls: “This time around, the Fed cannot step in and provide stimulus. So I don’t think it’s good news that we’re not going to get anything out of Congress over the next two years,” El-Erian said.
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