Jun

26

Excellent book written by a geneticist, entomologist, and economist with applications to every aspect of markets.

The Trees in My Forest

Boulders now protrude all over my hill. As I lingered under the red spruces on the sun-dappled ground I heard soft breeze through the branches above me, and I marveled at how the glaciers, lichens encrusted the rocks. Vines of crowberries, blueberries, cranberries and sedges grew on gravelly soil. They held moisture. Mosses took hold, retaining even more moisture. A layer of brown humus accumulated through the ages. Spruce, fir and birch seedlings sprouted. Vines and roots, building soil and supporting moss, crept over the rocks, building yet more soil.

a boulder:
El-Erian: ‘It’s uncomfortably possible’ that the Fed will push the economy into a recession

it is instructive to look at a long-term chart of S&P. it was 1000 in 1996, 2000 in 2007, 2600 in 2016, 4000 these days.

dividing the period up into 4 non-overlapping periods, one finds that in none of them have gone more than 109 days without an 80-day high. in each period, the longer we went without an 80-day high, the more bullish it became. we last hit an 80 day high on 3-18. that's 70 days ago.

it is not often that we go 100 days without an 80 day high. indeed since 1996 it has only happened 9 times. when we go 70 days or more without an 80-day high, it is very bullish. indeed the expectation to the next-80 day high has a t of 16. if you haven't had a recurrence of cancer within 70 months, your survival expectation and probabilities are very high. this is useful and regular use of survival statistics.

despite the backlash, the youthful, biking 80-yr-old, 14.1%, is still only behind the Florida Man by about 6 percentage pts. what can we make of it? The regulatory capture looks bad for Nov. 2022 but we still went up 5% last week. a new meme seems to be taking hold. Perhaps Heinrich on mosses is relevant.

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