Jun

5

How are they going to paint this as a strong economy?

[Data source. -Ed.]

Andy Aiken responds:

It's not, but it gives the Fed a pretext to hold off on rate increases in an election year.

Vic adds:

46 leaked the numbers in his speech on Powell. they get the numbers several days in advance.

A reader asks:

Bill, how have ten year yields reacted in the past when the number is both negative year over and continuing to accelerate down trend? It seems this could be the catalyst that causes the long end to flatten out/rally as the Fed continues to raise the short? Does that hypothesis bear out in testing?

Bill Rafter replies:

Thanks for the question. I will not know until I test.

George Zachar asks:

oddly, the y/y% change in private eci wages has roughly doubled since late 2020, now at 5%. can you square the circle?

Bill Rafter replies again:

I will have to look at it. The payroll taxes are most the macro I can tap, so I tend to put their veracity on top.

Paolo Pezzutti comments:

I was hoping an Api could download the file from the treasury website. There are a number of Api's in Python or R to download datasets in json, csv, xml from FRED and other websites as alternative data to find relationships and regularities with stock index prices. Some of these keys are premium. I wonder if this approach provides real added value with respect to counting based on the idea that prices represent the synthesis of all market players actions and views.


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