Mar

10

1. Since last Wednesday I had the pleasure of visiting at Duke with my med school daughter and Adrian Bejan. I asked Bejan what the most important principle of river flow is and he answered it keeps flowing forward until a dam blocks it. This is good advice for stock market traders.

2. One notes 8 occasions that the S&P futures were down 75 big points or more since 1996 and all were up by Tuesday close an average of 45 points or 3% by Tuesday close. One recalls the October 19th 1987 crash and noted a big decline from Wed close to Thurs opening and then clear sailing to new his.

3. The only thing worrisome now that those who were on margin were forced out is that the presidential odds show Biden almost 45% to win election now with only 55% for Trump.

4. One notes that Dr. Bejan won this prestigious award from France and the Pres and dep chair of Duke attended. It was the first time he had met with them in 38 years of teaching. Perhaps the reason is the idea that has the world in its grip.

5. This was 75 big points or more on Monday.

6. A note from Mr. Jia with the comment "this two will pass": "How Does This Compare to Ebola, SARS?"

6. Excellent article with many highways and byway relating to markets: "He's on Fire! What NBA Jam's Hot Hands Reveals About the Power of Streaks"

7. A note from Jeff Watson concerning the importance of maintaining proper margin: "Frank Crumit: A Tale of the Ticker (1929 Stock Market Song)"

8. Writing in 1935 Nock notes the proverbial pre-election rally. One should test this.


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  1. none on March 10, 2020 8:17 am

    VALUG Index is the only true weighting of stock pricing, the recent long term (2 year) trading range is broken down towards the downside. Breaking the value level of the Trump Low and starting a longer term Bear market.

    The last 2 years of stock market data:

    Value Line GEO Index ($VALUG) = Important all time high ‘real dollar’ value, is seen at year 1998, 2007, 2015:

    These highs above state the ‘real dollar’ value of all stocks at an equal weighting of dollar value.

    The insight into the current condition of the U.S. stock market:

    The Value Line Geometric Index ($VALUG) tracks the median move of stocks within the index using the assumption that each stock has an equal amount (for example, $1,000) invested in them. The daily average move of this index is calculated geometrically (rather than arithmetically). Value Line Geometric Index eliminates an illusion created by cap-weighted index components as heavily weighted stocks within a cap-weighted index can pull it higher even as the majority of the stocks within the index are not following along.

    Tracking the $VALUG is the inner working towards ‘real dollar’ value to see the entire stock market at each market cycle high and low point over the years and decades.

    These recent lows in all stock market indexes are now seen as an ‘inflection point’ (03092020), looks towards rising prices as an exit.

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