Feb

24

…and taxes too low, just wait:


Compared SP500 monthly returns since 1950 under Democratic and Republican presidents (from inaugurations in January). Turns out under Dems stocks do a little better, but not significantly:

Two-sample T for Dem ret vs Rep ret

                N       Mean      St Dev      SE Mean
Dem ret   685    0.0073    0.0408      0.0016 T=0.51
Rep ret    410    0.0060    0.0429      0.0021

Notice the standard deviation is a little lower for the party of redistribution, so maybe their appeal is less volatility?

Test for Equal Variances: Dem ret, Rep ret

95% Bonferroni confidence intervals for standard deviations

               N      Lower    St Dev      Upper
Dem ret  685   0.038     0.041        0.043
Rep ret   410   0.040     0.043        0.047

F-Test (normal distribution) Test statistic = 0.90, p-value = 0.252

Depending on your definition of what "is" is (as well as significance of DNA on children's clothing), Dems do have slightly lower market volatility (N.S.) as well as possibly better skills subduing the mistress.  


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