Feb
18
An Example of Ever Changing Cycles, by Victor Niederhoffer
February 18, 2007 |
These are the daily closes in the SASEIDX index starting Monday, January 30.
Jan. 30 6940
Jan. 31 7041
Feb. 03 7198
Feb. 04 7134
Feb. 05 7118
Feb. 06 7269
Feb. 07 7328
Feb. 10 7383
Feb. 11 7356
Feb. 12 7533
Feb. 13 7707
Feb. 14 7881
Feb. 17 8021
Feb. 18 8056
To put these moves in perspective, note that as of the year end of 2000, the index was 2310, and it moved up to 5000 in mid 2004, then rose to 20000 in mid 2006, and then back down to below 7000 on Jan. 30, 2007. Many interesting hypotheses are generated by such movements. The first is whether serial correlation such as trends are much greater for newer, smaller markets than older markets. A related query is whether it is at all possible to make money for the public in small markets where there is so much less to go around. The third is whether it pays to reverse a market or to stock on its way back when it has gone down 65% from a high in a year. The fourth is whether a move to above 8000 is in some way a song of confidence. The fifth is how this is related to or indicative of oil moves in the past, present or future.
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