Feb

3

Prof. HaaveOK, it's been settled. We have found the winner for the influential financier with the most vague, yet still wrong predictions award.

I was thinking of commenting on it line by line, but there are no good markers for how to separate the different ideas. It is one continual BS stream of consciousness. Notice of course that three of his predictions use the term "might," and how he congratulates himself for his predication that a renewed bear market in U.S. stocks might occur.

A year ago, Gary Shilling, in his monthly INSIGHT newsletter,
outlined his 6 investment themes for 2005.

He said three of them were likely to develop in 2005
while three would maybe unfold last year.

What made those six ideas stand out
was that they were not simply a rehash
of what most Wall Street analysts, economic forecasters
and other cheerleaders were saying at the time.

In fact, all six were non-consensus and, therefore, could produce
significant investment rewards.
           One year ago, Gary Shilling
               1. predicted a rally in the dollar.
               2. forecast spreading deflationary expectations.
               3. said the yield curve would continue to flatten.
               4. said the housing bubble might burst.
               5. said a renewed bear market in U.S. stocks might occur.
               6. stated that a hard landing in China might happen.

How did things turn out?  The dollar rallied.  Deflationary
expectations spreading beyond autos and into appliance stores,
department stores, computers and recreational vehicles.  The yield
curve flattened and, late in Dec. 2005, inverted.  While the housing
bubble hasn't burst, that red-hot market has evidently cooled.  While
U.S. equities didn't plummet like they did in the 2000-2002 bear
market, the Dow Jones Average last year was down while the S&P 500 and
Nasdaq registered only slight gains.  And despite efforts to cool an
overheated economy without dumping it into a recession, China's
economy appears to be facing serious difficulties.

Gary Shilling has often been way ahead of the crowd. [Read more here]


Comments

Name

Email

Website

Speak your mind

Archives

Resources & Links

Search