Sep

21

Equinox, from Craig Mee

September 21, 2006 |

I have  read a couple references to the Equinox and just too many cases to not to at least be respectful.

Legendary trader WD Gann claimed that more than any other day Sept 22 marks a turning point in capital + commodity markets. September 22nd (Friday) as a cycle date is Autumnal Equinox. The window includes the day before and after.

Could it be Natural Gas? Amaranth's long positions are probably squared now. Finally gas can rise? Could it be oil? Arbor's DSI Matrix shows oil's bullish sentiment at record lows as the price hits 9 month lows.

Could it be stocks? The Dow is just 200 points from an all time high. S&P trades are at a high for the year and the highest since February 2001, but in yearly resist 1301/1338.

Could it be bonds? The US 10 year is at a 6 month low yield.

It could be that the Autumnal Equinox passes without hitch, however it is worth noting that the few days around September 22nd have in the past marked major highs/lows and markets are trading at extremes.

Dr. Kim Zussman responds:

This looks like a testable question, so for a quick look I used SPY daily closes (yes, with dividends, including effects of deletions, additions, etc) since 1993 in the following scheme:

At the turn of each month, I noted the high close of a period of 7 days centered around the 22nd of each month. Then I compared this high with the high of a 40 trading day period centered on the same day. If there is a match, then the high close around the 22nd is a "major high" (not to be confused by anyone growing up in the 60's), and then note the month. Thus, if highs occurring around the 22nd of each month are major highs, and these are more common around the autumnal equinox, we would expect September (month 9) to dominate. BUT here is the list of months when highs around the 22nd corresponded with centered 40 day highs:

1
2
3,3
4
5,5,5
6,6
7,7
8,8
10

OK, no Septembers. Nor Novembers or Decembers.

My bet on margin is that equinoxes correlate best with calendar dates when the sun spends nearly equal time above and below the horizon.


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