Jan

7

Whether the bubble will really explode or not, and whether it will do it in two months or five years doesn't seem to be completely knowable, it's kind of like the physics of explosions of superheated/supercooled matter, little things can make dramatic differences to the outcomes. I'm somewhat more positive now with the political dynamics changed, but I get contradictory signals every day and it will take some time for me to settle to a more stable mode of thinking.

For reasons I'd rather not get into, I have not really done much to "collapse-proof" my portfolio. I would not own government debt of any kind, but I never had it anyway because of my aversion to all types of debt instruments. I don't even want to talk about precious metals as there are those who are eminently more qualified here (and of course on every other subject as well, but particularly that one).

I've been trying to understand the link between the collapse of government debt and printing-induced inflation on the one hand and equities on the other, and it seems like equities are likely to be better than many other things, so for a short time I bought more but the kind that in my estimation is less tied to discretionary consumer demand. I have seriously considered emigration (one more time) as the rest of the strategies aren't likely to deal successfully with the Mad Max-type outcomes, but haven't found it practical. For those who are in a different "pay grade" than me and can afford to deal with all the logistics, including the tax consequences, I would seriously recommend opening accounts in multiple countries that have relatively low debt. Commodities outside of precious metals at this point seem too uncertain, given the already elevated levels and the risks to the ultimate consumer demand collapse. With moderate to moderately high inflation they should do well, but there are too many other scenarios for my taste.


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