Nov

2

StrategyLiddell Hart, in his book Strategy (mentioned by Vic previously) maintains that many good military strategies are indirect. Commanders did not want to risk high casualties in a face to face direct confrontation with a massive force. Indirect methods include harrying attacks along a stretched flank, hit and run, quick parrying thrusts, probing actions, attacks on the supply routes, feint and pullback, and utilizing the terrain to the smaller force's advantage. The feint and pullback was a favorite of the Mongols who led the cumbersome slow-moving Teutonic knights as the Mongols pulled back, leading the pursuing knights into a deadly cul de sac, surrounding and then attacking their rear and flank. These methods led to division of the army into smaller units over time. In this manner the psychological turning of the enemy can be accomplished rather than through its annihilation at less cost.

In Friday's market a direct confrontation with armies of Goldman and the weakened armies of the the other biggies lobbing the 1000 lot bombs might risk high casualties. As an analogy to a military campaign, a trading campaign might use indirect methods to lessen its risk. Attacking the rear would be engaging after the larger force has turned. Utilizing terrain might utilize the area of the 1500th meridian as a defending terrain. Parrying thrusts would allow a small unit to make quick hits and then pull back without risking a full engagement that might wipe the smaller unit out.

StalingradAnother danger a large fast moving army faces is stretching its supply line and exposing a flank making it vulnerable to flanking moves. Today we see some big 2% point moves stretching the opposing lines as they directly attack the 1500th meridian line. Beyond that they seemed to be weakened and extended and pulled back rapidly.

Another problem an invading army faces is supply. It cannot stay and besiege for long for its psychological momentum fades as does its ability to live off the surrounding countryside. It appears that the invaders are having trouble psychologically besieging the 1500 line and have pulled back quite rapidly after stretching its supply lines quite badly. Their numerical advantage is quite low today and is diminishing.

These factors favor the high tech fast moving smaller guerrilla force who can operate day and night in all conditions. Looking at the numbers in depth below 3000 only a few elite troops are engaging today in high tech battle. The fog of war applies to trading.


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