Sep

3

Using DJIA daily closes from 1930-2006, at the end of each calendar year, I found the low close of the last 125 trading days of that year, and the high close of the first 125 trading days of that year. The maximal decline was defined as:

[(min last 6mo)/(max 1st 6mo)]-1

These maximal declines could range in duration from a few days to the entire year, and were used to compare intra-year declines by last digit of calendar year. I performed a comparison using a variation of ANOVA, which compares individual means to the global mean.

Note that none of the year last digit maximal declines were significantly different from the global mean (the bar does not cross the red 0.05 alpha line). XXX7 years are lower than most, but XXX1 and XXX2 years are similar.


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