Sep

10

Mysteries, solved and unsolved

September 10, 2022 |

every morning I wake up to another solved mystery where Sherlock Holmes applies the powers of deduction and observation to solve another crime thinking backward to see what chain of events led up to the current crime scene. I try to apply that same reasoning to the market.

what led to the amazing rally in crude today and the hyperbolic rise in S&P from 3900 at 9:A.M EST on wed sep 7? it had to be the rising prob of the dark bicyclist winning the 2024 election to 15% from 11% a few days ago.

Victor Hanson says the reason is the increasing woke everywhere. He details 10 examples of this in his current. as I have mentioned many times, the more woke it is the more regulatory capture there is. the big corps, the prof leagues, the Ivys are ecstatic.

nobody asked me but…why is the tall chair Volker lionized for fining the economy by raising rates to 18% in his tenure and trying to make the world free of technology and innovation and growth? No wonder the current chair tries to emulate him to the dark bicyclist's ascent.

now dark unifier at 17.2% prob same as desantis. an amazing increase. doing the rite thing for improvement in his chances and it follows the market nice 4%+ move this week in S&P and Nasdaq but strangely bonds are down 7 percentage pts at 60-day low. somehow the signaling of the bears in bonds to help the dark one are believable. the chair mite be switching his allegiance to 30-year bonds.

query: the traders instruction book is full of signals to buy grains around the new moon. has it worked for grains and others markets? someone would kindly explain this study to me:

Impact of the Moon Phases on Prices of 110 Equity Indices and Commodities

looking at the 4 years since 1996 that as of sep 15 were down for the year: 2000, 2008, 2011, 2015. the change to the end of the year was approximately -100 points with 3 of 4 down for the year. before 1996 the same qualitative expectation.

for the 11 years it was up from the beginning of the year, all were up from sep 15 to the end of the year about the same 100 S&P pts as the move when it was down for the year. note that 4 observations is not statistically meaningful.

of all the Sherlock Holmes stories, my least favorite is The Hound of the Baskervilles. however, there is some great advice for speculators in it. Lord Baskerville had made back his fortune by speculating in S. African equities. "however knowing that after a big win it is good to stop, he withdrew his money from S. Africa at the top and lived comfortably and generously in his mansion" (i paraphrased). the question of the ideal stopping point is a very good one. Certainly not at the bottom like most gamblers but perhaps not at the top.

a correlation between being the first on Yankees to kneel during the National Anthem and subsequent quitting? and Boone was his usual self in praising Hicks when he benched him. was it partly because of the kneeling?

Yankees' Aaron Hicks benched after terrible mistake leads to runs

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