Apr

6

There is a maxim in poker: Poker is not so much about the hands you win. It is about the hands you do not lose.

I stress this point from a perspective that there is one ultimate fact that must drive the winning poker player. That is the objective of poker is not to play hands; it is to win money and to play each hand correctly. Sounds simple right?

If it is so simple why do so few find success in the pursuit of the game? I offer these thoughts:

Mistake number one:

There are no entitlements in poker. Sometimes you can do everything right, calculate all the proper odds, and still lose. Poker is not always fair especially in the short run. You can be a huge favorite to win a hand and still lose.

Example: I was in a tournament recently when I went all-in on the second hand in a big tournament. I was in late position and there were two people ahead of me who raised the pot. I had A-A. The first raiser reluctantly folded and the second raiser called me. He had Q-Q. I am instantly an 80% favorite to win the hand. The flop comes out no help to the queens. Now I am a 90% favorite. No help on the turn. I become a 95% favorite. Lo and behold I drowned with the Q showing up on the board. I go from potential chip leader to the rail. All within 2 minutes.

Example: You hold K-K. There is only one hand that you are an underdog, A-A, and there is a 2.5% chance this will happen. Yet be aware that it will happen and in accord with Murphy's Law.

Mistake number two:

You stay with a hand too long.

Example: A-K. This is known notoriously as Big Slick. It is called this for a reason. It can be a beautiful hand or it can become a very slippery slope. Heads up, pre-flop it is a very good hand but it is almost always a drawing hand. This means that it usually needs help after the flop. If it does not improve on the flop, its value shrinks greatly. After the flop and against any pair it is a 3-2 underdog.

I have seen numerous lose all their chips. They lament, "Well, I could not fold; after all it was Big Slick."

Mistake three:

Arguing with the cards. The cards do not have ears. The deck does not know that you need a 9 to fill out your straight so don't implore it. And don't ask the deck to cooperate with you. Don't blame the deck or the dealer when your open-ended straight gets snapped off on the end, or you have two over cards against a medium pair and lose. Especially, don't argue with the table when you decided to make a bone-headed play and "Donkey Off" your chips because you misplayed a hand or misread the board, or got outdrawn by the last guy at the table catching a miracle flush on the river.

Mistake four:

Letting the last hand dictate how you play the next hand. That is, don't stay in the past and argue or discuss what just happened. A fresh deck has no memory. Forget about the past. Stay in the moment.

This is extremely hard to do especially after losing a hand. I have seen people discuss a hand for a long time and thus miss out on a hand that they easily could have won had they played it correctly. Or worse, they steam, go on tilt, and play this hand with the hope they will win money that they lost on the last. They go all-in on a marginal hand or search for a miracle that just won't come. Worse, they use the excuse that they misplayed this hand because they lost the last hand.

In short, every hand is its own entity and needs to be dealt with accordingly. I hope these views are helpful to the poker player and the speculator alike. I believe that if one embraces these points and reflects upon them it will improve their chances of success.

In Poker they say, "It takes a few minutes to learn but a lifetime to master." I would argue that one never masters the game. One only gets better.

The same with speculating.


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