Mar

9

About six months ago I posted my growth rate calculation of Federal Payroll Tax Withholding in the form of a chart   showing its past relation to the stock market. The information was shocking to me, and apparently to a few others. It showed that the U.S job growth was declining, as indicated by the real numbers - payroll taxes, not surveys. It's natural to think of declining job growth as a "job growth recession." That's what scared me - the "R" word.

All of my trading information was indicating a higher market, yet the R word had me in a state of apoplexy. Boy was I dumb! I ignored the obvious: When your economy is at full employment, it's impossible to have anything but a decline in job growth. That doesn't mean a decline in jobs - just in their rate of expansion. An economy in that situation does the obvious - outsource.

So before you throw in the towel, remember, we're at full employment. And also note that the job growth numbers have been coming back up.


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