Jul

6

Greece, from anonymous

July 6, 2015 |

People, people, people. Please, lose the conceit that Europe is all that is in play here. Sure, one interpretation of events is that Greece overplayed its hand. But let's consider what doors are open to Greece:

1. The China option (granted, the Chinese are busy rescuing their stock market, but I doubt that they will let the opportunity for a Mediterranean base slip by so cheaply) is still on the table.

2. Russia may not have money (although Greece may not need much on a short term basis), but it does have commodities it can barter. I don't know how easily Greece might monetize those commodities, but that option may exit.

3. The Greeks could also play the humanitarian crisis card.

4. Greece might threaten NATO with forming an alliance with China/Russia/Iran/etc. "NATO, help us or we're gone." There is a path for countries to leave NATO, as the French did in the 1960s. In the midst of the West's efforts to contain Putin's Russia, I don't know that Greece's departure from NATO would be greeted quickly with "Good riddance."

Lastly, Greece may have some issues in front of it. They may present challenges. But I think the EMU has a bigger challenge—preventing Spexit and Pexit (and maybe Itexit). It also has some write-downs to contend with.

Then again, who knows, perhaps Greece will declare war on the US. Anyone recently seen a copy recently of The Mouse That Roared? This isn't just an economic situation. It's a political one. It's a social one. The EMU leadership is no doubt angry and frustrated with Greece, but that doesn't mean it isn't in its interest to assist Greece. The last thing the EMU wants (or needs) is a Somalia on the Mediterranean 700 miles from Rome and 1,100 miles from Zurich.


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1 Comment so far

  1. peter on July 6, 2015 7:13 pm

    … yes, a political question. - not a geopolitical one (yet)

    Greece can not be explained proportionally with (only) Greece.

    In regard to the EMU project, I always wondered why a step back is considered a heretic thought.

    A step back in a long-term project (forward) should not be an issue. It should be expected by the humble-minded, the realist, the practitioner and even the technocrat.

    Well, humility is not at the core of the EMU project,
    but Ideology is, I believe.

    And this ideology covers up a deep-seated lack of confidence in the project by its loudest proponents.

    further potential entries on a geopolitical list:
    - Turkey - Russia - Bosporus
    - Mediterranean gas fields (still in play ?)

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