Holy Grail? from Jeff Watson

January 15, 2008 |

Holy GrailWhen I was a grad student, I studied a lot of philosophical theories that could explain the market. When I first discovered Laplace, I thought I had discovered the Holy Grail that could have explained the future actions of the markets. This turned out to be mumbo jumbo. I tried to use probability waves to no avail, and the study of Heisenberg and many others offered me no help in my search to predict the market. I oftened wondered if the mere act of observing the market would change it as result of the "Observer Effect." After trying to correlate many different theories into predicting the markets, I finally gave up, much as I gave up trying to prove Fermat's Last Theorem. It's impossible to find a Holy Grail that will predict the markets. Our pattern recognition skills, unconscious thought process, use of statistics, and looking at fundamentals are what should guide our decisions. All the brainpower I wasted in my quest is why I ended up being a scalper, never destined for greatness, but being able to live another day to grind it out.


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