We now have the first useful data for the 2020 Election probabilities. As you all probably know, my definition of "useful data" is polling that is limited to the jurisdictions in which the actual election is going to be held - i.e. states and individual districts for the House of Representatives. I also have this quirky notion that the pollsters ought to disclose what their sample was, in terms of size, party affiliation and probability of voting (adults, registered or likely voter). Meredith College has just released their October poll for North Carolina.

They pass the test for "useful data"; indeed, they go well beyond it. They are careful enough to note that they have not weighted their sample based on the likely partisan make-up of the actual electorate next November. So, their results are simply a raw collection of opinion using dual mode sampling - i.e. telephone versus internet interviewing. They report that "the average age of the internet respondents was 41, while the average age of the telephone respondents was 53. Otherwise, the differences in gender, party affiliation, and other factors was negligible."

The partisan break-down of the respondents is Republican - 33%, Democrat - 32.1%, Independent - 30.4%, with the remainder "Something Else". They favor an "Impeachment Inquiry" - 48.8% Yes, 41% - No, 6.2% - Don't Know; but they also choose Trump over any named Democrat:

rump - 38.4%, Biden- 34.6%, Someone Else/Don't Know - 26.8%
Trump - 39.1%, Warren- 33%, Someone Else/Don't Know - 27.5%
Trump - 38.8%, Sanders - 32.5%, Someone Else/Don't Know - 28.6%  
Trump - 39.1%, Harris - 28.4%, Someone Else/Don't Know - 32.4%
Trump - 39%, Buttigieg - 27%, Someone Else/Don't Know - 33.9%
Trump even manages to beat a "name randomly chosen out of the phone book" but by the smallest margin of all.
Trump - 42.7%, Random Name - 40.1%, Don't Know - 33.9% 

anonymous writes: 

Anecdotal, but telling imo. I go to a county fair in North East PA in August every year since the kids were little. Last year, there were lots of Maga hats, Trump T-shirts and Trump/Pence 2016 stickers on trucks in the parking area. This year, there were none. Granted it's not far from Scranton, but it's not in Scranton.


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