This is a chart illustrating the S&P shaded to reflect the yearly trend of Initial Unemployment Claims (Fed St. Louis series ICSA). While the chart does not prove anything, it does illustrate a possible relationship. Note that the data relating to the claims have been inverted, such that increases in claims implicate poorer economic conditions and in-turn declining equity prices.

Editorial comments: I do not prefer the ICSA data because it is weekly and goes through a process of human intervention (?corruption?). I prefer daily data that gets recorded electronically without any possible manipulation. HOWEVER even the ICSA data is now showing bearish market indications. I could torture this data to present the current situation as bullish (by introducing significant lag), but have tried to show it similar to how most would be receiving the information.


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