LG wrote:

What is wrong with my logic here?

Over the course of time, accurate brick laying and other construction tasks will become automated using numerical control processes pioneered in the aviation industry.

This will bring down the labor costs of building as well as reducing construction time..

Therefore the price of property is likely to reduce

Based on my experiences in the machine shop my father had in the basement, on my building of machinery to automate factories, and my experience building buildings, I think little will be automated in the construction industry.

Many have tried, with prefab bathrooms, prepackaged piping sets for kitchens and baths, and other things that make sense but don't catch on. Today in the US some 5% to 15% of new houses are factory built (depending on where you draw the line between "house" and "trailer"), but even they are not very automated - they benefit from protection from weather, stockpiling of materials, easier quality control, etc., but not from automation.

The main difficulty in automating construction tasks is setting the machine up for the many different sites, methods, dimensions, etc. Everything is already set up to be done by unskilled or semi-skilled labor.

Interestingly, after each building boom ends, the materials, codes, technologies, and economics change enough for the whole industry to have to reinvent itself for the next boom. During the last boom (just ending) insurance became major, and the ability to get a bond became a major cost of entry, effectively barring new entrants to the industry for the last few years. Labor got relatively cheap as material prices boomed, but that ratio has shifted back and forth many times in the past, as it will presumably do again in the future as Bacon's principles describe.

As for automation having a significant effect, it hasn't started yet, and I see no signs of it yet, but who knows.


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