The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner
Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, ballyhoo deflation,
value creation, and laughter;
Write to us at: (address is not clickable)
Annals of the Old Speculators Association
Department of Empirical Observation: To provide relief from government indexes, we have our own collection of economic indicators. The earliest examples are from our friend Hobo Keeley, whose groundbreaking work in cigarette-butt lengths and brothel data is detailed in Education of a Speculator. Exclusively to readers of Daily Speculations, here are new indicators based on steakhouses and trains, courtesy of The Old Speculators' Association, the shadowy, semi-mythical organization behind this Web site. Bridge, Ants and Grasshoppers -- The Tennessean who presides over the Old Speculators' Association responds to a plea from Vic: "Most of all, Mr. President, please tell us where the market's going in 2003." (11/14/3)
Book Review: Beyond the Random Walk -- Steve Wisdom, chief bottle washer, cook and researcher at Vic's firm, reviews Singal's 'Beyond the Random Walk, A Guide to Stock Market Anomalies' [Oxford U Press, '2004'] and finds it a workmanlike, if sometimes naive, effort.
Hydrogen Dreams -- William Haynes, the Spec Association's resident rocket scientist, punctures the myth of the hydrogen economy.
Speculation, Self-Perception and Coon-on-a-Log -- Spec Association Southerner's trade tales.
-- "The Hornet" explores
the odds of changing the direction of a ball in tennis --
e.g., from crosscourt to down the line -- and the possible
extrapolations to trading
I was Hoodooed -- Tom Ryan's harrowing account
The Lone Trader -- Devon Mallory (10/30/3)
Bears on the Couch -- Brett Steenbarger (10/03)
Unemployment and the End of the World -- James Altucher (10/4/3)
Ready, Aim, Trade -- Lessons for Speculators from Ft. Benning Sniper School (10/5/3)
The Piano Business: Laurel goes piano shopping in Manhattan, and reflects on marketing, culture, monopolies and technology. (10/30/3)
Lies, All Lies -- Ken Smith (10/5/3)
An Ingenious Pumping Device -- Trader Alex Castaldo pulls up a gem from Sir Francis Galton's well.
Paul DeRosa: Daily Speculations is happy to present, on rare occasions. the insights of Simpson & Co. partner Paul DeRosa, whom we regard as one of the most astute fixed-income traders in the world. Readers who followed his suggestions have not gone wanting for profits.
Conflicting Signals: Tom Ryan discusses a new academic paper that draws on insights from bookies.
Ode to Johnny Cash: Tom Ryan's tribute to the Man in Black.
Many Worlds: Art Cooper proposes a new paradigm drawn from the "many worlds" interpretation of quantum mechanics for comprehending the mutable nature of the financial markets. Cooper's essay presents "Many Worlds" as an alternative to the ever-changing cycles of Robert Bacon and Newton's law of cooling. The Spec Duo has written extensively about both of the latter theories; we find Cooper's essay remarkable and well worth considering.
On Counting (Brett Steenbarger, PhD): Daily Speculations' official market shrink turns his scientific eye on the popular use among market forecasters of anecdotes about 1929 and 1972.
The Great Goose Creek Call (Mr. E)
Gresham's Law, Fisher, Volatility: From Vic's right-hand man, Gitanshu Buch.
Book Review: Economics as an Evolutionary Science (Paul DeRosa): Economics and evolutionary biology have run along parallel tracks for the better part of two centuries. DeRosa, chief bottle washer at Simpson & Co., one of the best-performing hedge funds, says Economics as an Evolutionary Science is an overdue effort to engineer their explicit intersection.
$1 of Stock for 50 Cents? Few market myths are more pernicious and persistent than Ben Graham's advice to buy stocks of companies selling for less than liquidating value. (James Altucher)
To the Greedy Bastards! Tim Melvin on the Fourth of July.
Caddieconomics: Ross Miller on the amazing salaries of golf caddies.
Pawn Structure, Trading Systems and Money Management (Henry Carstens)