Markets and Tennis

"The Hornet" explores the odds of changing the direction of a ball in tennis -- e.g., from crosscourt to down the line -- and the possible extrapolations to trading.

 Let's say you and I are exchanging shots crosscourt, forehand to forehand into the "deuce" area of the court (diagonally - provided we are both right-handed). Our shots are both deep, with medium pace. Should you or I make a decision to change direction of the ball (to break the existing trend), that is by trying to hit the ball up the line, the odds of winning the point is roughly 30%.

First of all, before even hitting the ball, the odds have stacked against you - the net is 6 inches higher, and the court becomes shorter (apply Pythagorean theorem). Not only do you have to hit the ball with more loft, you need to impart more topspin to bring the ball into the court. Should you have difficulty imparting topspin, you will either hit the ball long, or hit a shot with weaker pace, landing short, which will give your opponent a chance to attack the left side of the court that you exposed with your weak, riskier attempt. You also put "Vector Risk" into play - the outcome could result in a wide shot as your timing needs to be excellent into to steer that ball up the line.

 Now therefore, with that being understood, you could extrapolate several words from the above paragraph that certainly apply to the markets, or better put, bad trading - higher, long, short, exchanging, opponent, riskier, weak, outcome, timing, needs, up, etc.