Essays on the Indirect Approach

Peter R. Gardiner ---- I never played consistently well enough to be nationally or world ranked, but I played enough at that level to pick up a few hard earned lessons - mostly administered in ignominious defeats - about playing in the wind against a lesser player. The wind is a force multiplier for the lesser player, and the better player had better remember a few things. A great advantage of the better player is in his ability to control the pace of play through a superior combination of power, strategy, technique, footwork and shot selection. But in the wind, touch, accuracy, and even power are often attenuated, particularly if the wind is other than North/South (.ie. directly behind or in the face of the server) In these circumstances, the advantages of the better player are reduced in all but one area - strategy - and it behooves him to recognize it going in. Above all, he cannot indulge in the standard procedure of the superior player: to just blow the opponent off the court. He will need to be much more patient. In the wind, the service toss must be lower, to cut down on error, therefore the serves are generally less hard and have less angle. All shots from the baseline require more spin for control, thereby reducing the ability to vary pace with flatter drives, or to pass with great accuracy. This reduces all the effects, as the combination and variation suffer. Further, the opponent's shots and, indeed, his movement will be more difficult to anticipate, thus reducing the superior diagnostic capabilities of the better player. This means, even for the power baseliner, that he had better get his butt up to the net more often than usual, and for the serve and volleyer, that he should expect to be passed more often, due to the crazy effects of the wind, both on his approaches and the opponent's passes. The matche's rhythm will be staccato and uncomfortable, encouraging frustration and impatience. For our efforts in Iraq, it is likewise: in weather and on the away court (attacking) we may have to slow down for awhile, in deference to the many ways which the elements restrain our superior capabilities. It is the impatience in windy tennis which is the killer for the better player.

Tom Durff ---- Another possible market application: performing analysis on an index, but actually trading a key component of the index; especially if that key component happens to be relatively stronger (if bullish) or relatively weaker (if bearish) than the index; And perhaps, one step more indirect (removed) would be options on that underlying key component.

Tom Ryan ---- I am reminded of one of scipios campaigns in spain where for many days in a row the romans got up at the crack of dawn and formed and then marchced to just out of arrow range to stand in full view of the carthaginians and their spanish allies. the romans would then stand there for 3-4 hours and then retire without attacking. after doing this for several days the spanish began to desert in masse and by day5-6, the carthaginians were so frazzled that when the attack finally did come they melted like snow on a spring day. reminds me also of all of those gap down opens earlier this year....

Nigel Davies ---- The author's observation is correct I believe, in that a "direct" (let's say frontal) attack is usually met with strong resistance (thus the failure of obvious attacks in chess). But I don't really see this question in these terms. In certain situations I may not be able to expand my own position rapidly without unacceptable risk, so I will hold the position in tension (flexibility and watchfulness) and look to make smaller (but arguably direct) gains. If the bishop is freed (not biting on a pawn on d5) then I might intensify the pressure against Black's queenside, otherwise I will play for a central expansion. The bishop's presence limits Black's options whilst this is going on, exerting latent pressure... In this context it's interesting to observe Capablanca's games; beautifully clear and direct, yet often making quite subtle gains. I would describe this process as doing what is possible within the constraints/risk of a particular situation. You maintain flexibility and multiple options, moving forward when you can like the tide. It's very difficult to keep the sea at bay and it will creep forward inexorably. There again, I wouldn't describe the sea as being "indirect".

James Lackey ---- Blitzkrieg in Stalingrad and the battle of the bulge, Bastogne are two examples of cities under siege. An outnumbered surrounded force can hold for a long time. The fabled battle for troy lasted 9 years. Everyone talking what we are going to do. No one knows what the enemy will do. None of the TV Generals dare say how they would defend Baghdad. They act if Iraq can do nothing. Nothing on the offense, is a good strategy, sit very tight. Baghdad is surrounded by rivers. Blow the bridges, blow the damn and the fields south to Basrah will be marsh. Our air power and Armor are not as useful in the city. A 300 mile supply train to Baghdad will be needed. Forward air bases must be established. Casualty rates for urban combat are 50% range in training with aggressive attack tactics.. An easy does it approach must be used on an assault on Baghdad. General Franks was my commander. He is very careful not to attack ahead of reinforcements and resupply. We have made it quite clear we mean no harm to the Iraqi people, just Saddam's regime. That is their best defense. Sit tight, hide behind civilians and wait for summer. A traditional siege and starve them out, will not work. We are concerned over bad Muslim press. The Turks have cut off access from the north. Perhaps they will make a play for the northern Kurdish territory. They do not want the Kurds to have their own state. That will be a battle of its own. This leaves us with one or two access to resupply. A forward Air base and a 3 or 4 hundred mile supply train from Kuwait and Saudi. Three day convoys, in the 120 degree heat, sandstorms and terrorist attacks, this is going to take months, not days. However it was a good politics, sell to the public, that the war would only take a few days. It going to take awhile, that all I saying.. Every military setback can be a buying opportunity....

Nigel Davies ---- A common device in chess is to improve your position as much as possible before taking positive action. Capablanca was very good at this; he'd put his opponents into positions in which they could not do very much and then gradually improve the position of his pieces. Later there was Tigran Petrosian who used this strategy with great effect, In modern times we have had Anatoly Karpov.

Russell D Sears ---- Jon Markman's piece yesterday was an "indirect approach" to the news is more powerful than a direct approach. A couple of other thoughts, on this topic. When is a "direct approach" better? A few answers I came up with are: 1. When time is essential. 2. When the battle has been decided. 3. When you don't want to play the game. "No means, 'no' " Both 2 and 3 were in favor of Bush's "decapitation" strategy. Second question, "How do you change from indirect to direct?" I consider good salesmen as having this art down. Indirectly gets you wanting wares, transitions with a smooth "close", then directly takes your money/ has you sign. Wasting no time after getting a yes. Applications to the market: 1. Honor your limits. 2. Sell on facts. 3. Ever watchful of carry or opportunity cost. But this list is from a beginner.

Glenn ---- Thirty Six Strategies of War Strategy 1 Fool the Emperor to Cross the Sea Moving about in the darkness and shadows, occupying isolated places, or hiding behind screens will only attract suspicious attention. To lower an enemy's guard you must act in the open hiding your true intentions under the guise of common every day activities. Strategy 2 Besiege Wei to Rescue Zhao When the enemy is too strong to attack directly, then attack something he holds dear. Know that in all things he cannot be superior. Somewhere there is a gap in the armour, a weakness that can be attacked instead. Strategy 3 Kill with a Borrowed Sword When you do not have the means to attack your enemy directly, then attack using the strength of another. Trick an ally into attacking him, bribe an official to turn traitor, or use the enemy's own strength against him. Strategy 4 Await the Exhausted Enemy at Your Ease It is an advantage to choose the time and place for battle. In this way you know when and where the battle will take place, while your enemy does not. Encourage your enemy to expend his energy in futile quests while you conserve your strength. When he is exhausted and confused, you attack with energy and purpose. Strategy 5 Loot a Burning House When a country is beset by internal conflicts, when disease and famine ravage the population, when corruption and crime are rampant, then it will be unable to deal with an outside threat. This is the time to attack. Strategy 6 Clamor in the East, Attack in the West In any battle the element of surprise can provide an overwhelming advantage. Even when face to face with an enemy, surprise can still be employed by attacking where he least expects it. To do this you must create an expectation in the enemy's mind through the use of a feint. Strategy 7 Create Something From Nothing You use the same feint twice. Having reacted to the first and often the second feint as well, the enemy will be hesitant to react to a third feint. Therefore the third feint is the actual attack catching your enemy with his guard down. Strategy 8 Openly Repair The Walkway, Secretly March to Chencang Attack the enemy with two convergent forces. The first is the direct attack, one that is obvious and for which the enemy prepares his defense. The second is the indirect, the attack sinister, that the enemy does not expect and which causes him to divide his forces at the last minute leading to confusion and disaster. Strategy 9 Observe the Fire on the Opposite Shore Delay entering the field of battle until all the other players have become exhausted fighting amongst themselves. Then go in full strength and pick up the pieces. Strategy 10 Hide Your Dagger Behind a Smile Charm and ingratiate yourself to your enemy. When you have gained his trust, you move against him in secret. Strategy 11 Sacrifice the Plum Tree In Place of the Peach There are circumstances in which you must sacrifice short-term objectives in order to gain the long-term goal. This is the scapegoat strategy whereby someone else suffers the consequences so that the rest do not. Strategy 12 Seize the Opportunity To Lead a Sheep Away While carrying out your plans be flexible enough to take advantage of any opportunity that presents itself, however small, and avail yourself of any profit, however slight. Strategy 13 Beat The Grass To Startle The Snake When you cannot detect the opponent's plans launch a direct, but brief, attack and observe your opponent reactions. His behavior will reveal his strategy. Strategy 14 Borrow a Corpse to Raise the Spirit Take an institution, a technology, or a method that has been forgotten or discarded and appropriate it for your own purpose. Revive something from the past by giving it a new purpose or to reinterpret and bring to life old ideas, customs, and traditions. Strategy 15 Lure the Tiger Down the Mountain Never directly attack a well-entrenched opponent. Instead lure him away from his stronghold and separate him from his source of strength. Strategy 16 To Catch Something, First Let It Go Cornered prey will often mount a final desperate attack. To prevent this you let the enemy believe he still has a chance for freedom. His will to fight is thus dampened by his desire to escape. When in the end the freedom is proven a falsehood the enemy's morale will be defeated and he will surrender without a fight. Strategy 17 Toss Out A Brick To Attract Jade Prepare a trap then lure your enemy into the trap by using bait. In war the bait is the illusion of an opportunity for gain. In life the bait is the illusion of wealth, power, and sex. Strategy 18 To Catch the Bandits First Capture Their Leader If the enemy's army is strong but is allied to the commander only by money or threats then, take aim at the leader. If the commander falls the rest of the army will disperse or come over to your side. If, however, they are allied to the leader through loyalty then beware, the army can continue to fight on after his death out of vengeance. Strategy 19 Steal The Firewood From Under the Pot When faced with an enemy too powerful to engage directly you must first weaken him by undermining his foundation and attacking his source of power. Strategy 20 Trouble The Water To Catch The Fish Before engaging your enemy's forces create confusion to weaken his perception and judgment. Do something unusual, strange, and unexpected as this will arouse the enemy's suspicion and disrupt his thinking. A distracted enemy is thus more vulnerable. Strategy 21 Shed Your Skin Like the Golden Cicada When you are in danger of being defeated, and your only chance is to escape and regroup, then create an illusion. While the enemy's attention is focused on this artifice, secretly remove your men leaving behind only the facade of your presence. Strategy 22 Shut the Door to Catch the Thief If you have the chance to completely capture the enemy then you should do so thereby bringing the battle or war to a quick and lasting conclusion. To allow your enemy to escape plants the seeds for future conflict. But if they succeed in escaping, be wary of giving chase. Strategy 23 Befriend a Distant Enemy to Attack One Nearby It is known that nations that border each other become enemies while nations separated by distance and obstacles make better allies. When you are the strongest in one field, your greatest threat is from the second strongest in your field, not the strongest from another field. Strategy 24 Borrow the Road to Conquer Guo Borrow the resources of an ally to attack a common enemy. Once the enemy is defeated, use those resources to turn on the ally that lent you them in the first place. Strategy 25 Replace The Beams With Rotten Timbers Disrupt the enemy's formations, interfere with their methods of operations, change the rules in which they are used to following, go contrary to their standard training. In this way you remove the supporting pillar, the common link that makes a group of men an effective fighting force. Strategy 26 Point At The Mulberry But Curse The Locust Tree To discipline, control, or warn others whose status or position excludes them from direct confrontation; use analogy and innuendo. Without directly naming names, those accused cannot retaliate without revealing their complicity. Strategy 27 Feign Madness But Keep Your Balance Hide behind the mask of a fool, a drunk, or a madman to create confusion about your intentions and motivations. Lure your opponent into underestimating your ability until, overconfident, he drops his guard. Then you may attack. Strategy 28 Lure Your Enemy Onto the Roof, Then Take Away the Ladder 8With baits and deceptions lure your enemy into treacherous terrain. Then cut off his lines of communication and avenue of escape. To save himself he must fight both your own forces and the elements of nature. Strategy 29 Tie Silk Blossoms to the Dead Tree Tying silk blossoms on a dead tree gives the illusion that the tree is healthy. Through the use of artifice and disguise make something of no value appear valuable; of no threat appear dangerous; of no use, useful. Strategy 30 Exchange the Role of Guest for that of Host Defeat the enemy from within by infiltrating the enemy's camp under the guise of cooperation, surrender, or peace treaties. In this way you can discover his weakness and then, when the enemy's guard is relaxed, strike directly at the source of his strength. Strategy 31 The Strategy of Beautiful Women Send your enemy beautiful women to cause discord within his camp. This strategy can work on three levels. First, the ruler becomes so enamored with the beauty that he neglects his duties and allows his vigilance to wane. Second, other males at court will begin to display aggressive behavior that inflames minor differences hindering co-operation and destroying morale. Third, other females at court, motivated by jealousy and envy, begin to plot intrigues further exasperating the situation. Strategy 32 The Strategy of Open City Gates When the enemy is superior in numbers and your situation is such that you expect to be overrun at any moment, then drop all pretence of military preparedness and act casually. Unless the enemy has an accurate description of your situation this unusual behavior will arouse suspicions. With luck he will be dissuaded from attacking. Strategy 33 The Strategy of Sowing Discord Undermine your enemy's ability to fight by secretly causing discord between him and his friends, allies, advisors, family, commanders, soldiers, and population. While he is preoccupied settling internal disputes his ability to attack or defend, is compromised. Strategy 34 The Strategy of Injuring Yourself Pretending to be injured has two possible applications. In the first, the enemy is lulled into relaxing his guard since he no longer considers you to be an immediate threat. The second is a way of ingratiating yourself to your enemy by pretending the injury was caused by a mutual enemy. Strategy 35 The Tactic of Combining Tactics In important matters one should use several strategies applied simultaneously. Keep different plans operating in an overall scheme; in this manner if any one strategy fails you would still have several others to fall back on. Strategy 36 If All Else Fails Retreat If it becomes obvious that your current course of action will lead to defeat then retreat and regroup.