Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner


Dept. of Fixed Income
George Zachar


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10/30/05:    Money Supply Rates Decelerate
06/11/05:    Sherlock and Euro/Gold
05/31/05:    With Apologies to Superchicken
05/09/05:    Nebraskan Chronicles: Give the Man Credit
03/29/05:    'You're So Vain', with apologies to Carly Simon
03/17/05:    The Meaning of Trade Numbers
03/17/05:    Filling in the Blanks
03/11/05:    Fed Chairman Alan GreenSwan
03/08/05:    Bull Market in French Blacksmithing
03/07/05:    Greenspan As Political Lame Duck
02/09/05:    Round Number in Debt
01/25/05:     Steeleyed Economist Proves Reality is Wrong: The Latest from Steve Roach
01/21/05:    Why the Media Idolizes Buffett: He's 'Your Own Man'
01/09/05:     A Definitive Doom-and-Gloom Piece: A Classic from the Newport Beach Crowd
11/18/04:     Collapse in Debt Vol: Fannie Reinsurer Says, Time to Move On
10/08/04:     Unenjoyment Day
10/08/04:     Rabbi Hillel and Fannie Mae.
10/06/04:     A reference on the probability calculation used by Tradesports market in handicapping the outcome of the presidential election.
08/09/04:     Falsification of Hypotheses
07/28/04:     Meyers
July 2004:     Reading the Smoke
April 2004:   What Makes This Interest-Rate Environment Different from Prior Interest-Rate Environments?


It is not unusual for bond traders, after a payroll number and its attendant reaction, to look at each other and say, "You know, if we'd had the data early, and positioned logically, we'd have lost money." It is a truism that trading is luck in the very very short term, but skill over long time horizons. (10/08/04)

George Zachar is principal of Greensward Capital, a money management and trading firm in New York. He focuses on U.S. and European debt futures and options thereon.  "I try to integrate market directional and volatility trades, with 'living to fight another day' as my central guiding philosophy," Zachar says. "When I was a child, I remember watching a cheesy spy movie, where one spook says to his opposite number, 'The object of the game is to stay in the game.'"