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George Zachar
10/08/04
Unenjoyment Day
..is how gallows-humor bond market types mangle "unemployment day", the weekly payroll data release. This morning's economic derivatives auction on the number is FUBAR on my Bloomberg, but last night's, which is likely still broadly valid, came in at: 134 +/- 90. Taking a tip from list members who suggest watching the price action of the auction itself, rather than just the outcome, I noticed that the 1/2 hour market opened at 148, slipped to 145, jumped to 161, then collapsed to close at 134. There will be enormous interest in parsing out any hurricane effect, and the long-awaited benchmark revisions will further dilute interest in "the print". Finally, there is also the atypical coincidence of a presidential election "debate" tonight, assuring maximum media spin, regardless of the print. To restate the old trader's joke, "I'm flat, and I'm nervous."
George Zachar is principal of Greensward Capital, a money management and trading firm in New York. He focuses on U.S. and European debt futures and options thereon. "I try to integrate market directional and volatility trades, with "living to fight another day" my central guiding philosophy," Zachar says. "When I was a child, I remember watching a cheesy spy movie, where one spook says to his opposite number, "The object of the game is to stay in the game."