Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.



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The Fed Model


Workout by Manchester Trading's Tom Downing, with Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner

Siegel, Asness Critique the Fed Model (The Wall Street Journal, May 1, 2005)

Fed Model Update by Jean Paul Schmetz with comments from Jonathan G. Mogil and Manchester Trading's Tom Downing (1/21/2005)


A brief update from the Chairman



Table:  Price, earnings, interest rates, Fed value (1962-2003)
ComparisonTable:  May 15, 2003 table showing times of similarly narrow yield differential
Performance Table  Subsequent 12 Months' Performance as Function of Fed Model 


How the Fed's moves shake markets The Speculator": CNBC Money column by Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner, 5/17/2001)