Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.



Write to us at: (address is not clickable)

Kim Zussman: Order of Events

It seems likely that the order of contestants could effect their judging: A brunette might score better if ordered after a long parade of blondes simply out of contrast and the excitement of novelty. If she were first, there would not be a dramatic contrast to make her stand out. This relates to a similar question raised before on market's "thermometer", or its variable reactivity to positive and negative news.

The order of earnings announcements should be relatively random. However, if an important company like Intel takes some spin off the ball early, there might be some pall cast over subsequent contestants that would not have occurred otherwise. How different, for example, might the stocks have acted since July 1 if some of the better reports had *happened* to be situated near the front of the parade? (I imply that the sequence may, according to tenets of deception, be rigged in some way). This would seem to lend itself to counting; perhaps {% of key stocks surpassing estimates} in the first week having predictive influence on the next 3-weeks.

The question of market's variable subjectivity might relate also to short-term cycles often observed. Such that after going up (down) for some period mkt is primed for only superlative (bad) news, and negative shocks (positive shocks) sells off (rallies). So, for example, if earnings season starts after a recent rally there is greater risk, and vice-versa.

This is probably all obvious....