9/19/2005
High-Risk Opportunities in Outcast Countries Present and Former?

The recent political occurrences in North/South Korea, Iran/Iraq and Libya may be of interest to those interested in new investment opportunities, especially those who believe risk-taking is necessary. Certain rationales for these gambles follow:

1. North/South Korea

   The fledgling U.S. relationship with North Korea offers a true opportunity to expand markets and economic expansion throughout the two Koreas through the three trading corporations totally controlled by the North Korean elite. Also, it opens a gate for leaders in both Koreas to think in terms of organic integration of heavy industries and sourcing of materials in the North and supply of food and consumer goods from the South, without the rancor and backlash of the ideological stagnation of the past 50 years. Clearly, not all is in order; but a promising scene like this is predicated on fairly immediate reinforcement or it falls back to inertia. I give it three months to move either way. If delayed, worse scenarios will unfold, with China having more of a say.

2. Iran/Iraq

   Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's new president, has stated very specifically that he takes Islam to completely disallow nuclear weapons. He actually has repeated this declaration in front of the advisory or guiding board and in front of the Supreme Leader. He is inviting third parties, especially European, to participate in energy projects and thereby inspect "any" move to the contrary. Certain statements re "local" innovations in plutonium "processing" and the availability of first-class expertise in the dozen or so pertinent Iranian lab sites suggest a degree of real danger in less than the "quite a long period" that weapons can be deployed. On the other hand, a clear threat by Zarqawi and his insurgents to all Shiites, with a growing number of evident murders of Shiite civilians, must be taking its mental toll in Iran. There is but little that separates Iraqi and Iranian elites, religious and political. The opportunity I see is in a major dialog between the U.S. and Iran about combining forces and diminishing conflict intensity in several areas of serious disagreement, e.g., Israel-Palestine (by indicating a future confederation plan involving a Palestinian state and a secure Israel), and the Iranian-financed and guided Hizsb Il-llah (as it must and should disturb nobody in self-governing Lebanon or Israel and help Gaza move towards productive life).

   Ahmadinejad, who was the first mayor to be barred from attending cabinet meetings during his predecessor Khatami's time and has regional covert operations experience, would both want to (a) show his unforeseen strength in a dialog with the U.S. (b) do something real for his coreligionists in Iraq, something that can add up to a regional leadership status and would appeal to Shiite leaders all over.

   On the other hand, there is the Muta'ah principle, which resembles deception in speculation lingo; it roughly translates to misrepresentation of self to nonbelievers, very endemic in traditional Shiism, which may negate all said above or become a point of careful observation and examination if one undertakes exploiting the opportunity.

3. Libya

   Libya is one country that converted from the devil's way to become a more constructive member of trading and market openness.It chose to totally expose its arsenals of nuclear knowledge and options in favor of this explicit choice. More trading, interaction and highlighting the benefits to them and to world community are in order.

Clearly, if you do not believe in medium- or high-risk gambles, the above is not for you to consider as whatever evidence for proper moves is fairly scanty.