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<channel>
	<title>Daily Speculations</title>
	<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress</link>
	<description>THE WEB SITE OF VICTOR NIEDERHOFFER: DEDICATED TO VALUE CREATION, BALLYHOO DEFLATION AND APPLYING THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD IN FINANCE</description>
	<pubDate>Sun, 05 Apr 2026 23:17:40 +0000</pubDate>
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			<item>
		<title>Thinking Sideways, from Nils Poertner</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14675</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14675#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Apr 2026 21:15:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14675</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Video: Jennifer Shahade On The Hidden Cost of Thinking Too Far Ahead

Ordered the book written by a 2 times US female Chess player- it is about the dangers in thinking too far ahead (high IQ ppl like to do that and miss out the important turns when situations change&#8230;and keep getting too carried away). Good [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14675</wfw:commentRSS>
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		<item>
		<title>Continued VFR into IMC, from Humbert B.</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14674</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14674#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Apr 2026 20:55:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14674</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
In terms of trading, this makes me think of when rapid changes in market conditions push the trader&#39;s P&#38;L into the red, and the trader gets tunnel vision and makes bad decisions.
Analysis of the helicopter crash by experienced pilot:
What REALLY Happened To Kobe Bryant&#39;s Helicopter?
The key issue is Continued VFR into IMC:
Continued VFR into IMC [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14674</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Delmonico&#8217;s memories, from Steve Ellison</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14673</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14673#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2026 05:16:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Steve Ellison</category>
	<category>Jeffrey Hirsch</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14673</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
I remember a number of Spec Party dinners in Delmonico&#39;s, and I had a very educational conversation with then-81-year-old Yale Hirsch at one of them.
America&#8217;s Original Steakhouse Is Expanding - After Nearly 200 Years
When Delmonico&#8217;s first opened around the corner from Wall Street in 1837, it coincided with a financial panic, bank failures and the [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14673</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Women, men, and change, from Humbert X.</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14672</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14672#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Mar 2026 22:17:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
	<category>Jeffrey Hirsch</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14672</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Noticed when societies go a bit off kilter, women are much easier to talk to sometimes (Can&#39;t believe I ever say this).   Or maybe women are less interest to go extreme in the first place (family, home, other values more important). I mean how many lawyers in the city of London make it [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14672</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Self-importance in trading, from Nils Poertner</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14670</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14670#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2026 05:55:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Sushil Kedia</category>
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14670</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Self-importance really does weaken humans.
Got a call from 2 (mediocre), young traders.  Asked them how they do. They are really in their heads 90pc of their time as their thoughts go in circles (missing out on nuances in markets / changing patterns now.)
Inner dialogue
&#34;How I am doing?&#34;
&#34;Whether am up or down with someone else&#34;
&#34;My [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14670</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>AI use by firms, from B. Humbert</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14671</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14671#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 05:21:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14671</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[NBER Working Paper Series: Firm Data On AI
We present the first representative international data on firm-level AI use. We survey almost 6000 CFOs, CEOs and executives from stratified firm samples across the US, UK, Germany and Australia. We find four key facts. First, around 70% of firms actively use AI, particularly younger, more productive firms. [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14671</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Nobody asked me, but&#8230;</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14669</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14669#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Mar 2026 19:54:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Victor Niederhoffer</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14669</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[1) Jay Gould was a hero not a villain.
2) Gilbert and Sullivan: Opera Explained is my favorite nite time listen.
]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14669</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Specs in other disciplines, Nils Poertner</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14668</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14668#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Mar 2026 13:50:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
	<category>Oliver Joseph</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14668</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The moment specs apply their approach (test ideas, challenge group beliefs, count, be curious  etc etc) to other disciplines -  eg medicine, botanics, anything really.
One can easily see that one has learned &#34;cliche-thinking&#34; in university/school. And that most normies never leave that cliche thinking.  That is fine with me. Gell-Mann effect is [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14668</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Requiem for a permabear, from Steve Ellison</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14667</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14667#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2026 22:08:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Steve Ellison</category>
	<category>Peter Ringel</category>
	<category>William Huggins</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14667</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Christopher Balding on X:
[Paul Ehrlich&#39;s] predictions were not premature but just flat wrong. Not wrong as in they were a little off but wrong as in completely and entirely wrong not even close. However, that is not the part that people are missing.
Ehrlich thinking wormed its way into [so] much thinking and dominates large parts [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14667</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>More on intuition, from Denise K. Shull</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14665</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14665#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2026 05:54:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Denise Shull</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14665</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yes it certainly can be trained &#8211; from a note I wrote on intuition a couple of weeks ago:
One of the biggest mental shifts that your work has given me is how I understand intuition. It stopped feeling mystical or vague and became a real internal compass. I really started to see intuition as lived [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14665</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>T35 &#038; Political Aggression In the Middle East, from Asindu Drileba</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14666</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14666#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Mar 2026 05:30:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Big Al</category>
	<category>Asindu Drileba</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14666</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The T35 is an index that tracks the largest 35 stocks on the Tel-Aviv Stock exchange. I noticed that the T35 skyrockets during episodes of political aggression. On combing through the actual stocks, it turns out that the largest cap stock (about 10% of the index) is ESLT, a defence contractor.
Gold spikes usually before confirmed [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14666</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Soundness, Trust, and the Real Case Against Fiat Money, by Peter C. Earle</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14664</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14664#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2026 05:14:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Peter Earle</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14664</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Soundness, Trust, and the Real Case Against Fiat Money
Fiat currency may be unsound, poorly managed, or politically abused, but it is not counterfeit by nature, and conflating monetary soundness with legal authenticity undermines any attempt at economic debate. Counterfeiting has a precise meaning: the unauthorized creation of money or financial instruments that falsely purport to [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14664</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Keith Jarrett, from Nils Poertner</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14663</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14663#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Mar 2026 05:56:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Big Al</category>
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
	<category>Adam Grimes</category>
	<category>Oliver Joseph</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14663</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Keith Jarrett &#8211; The K&#246;ln Concert [Full Album 1975]
Keith Jarrett - quite an unusual artist, music almost from another planet. He believed ppl who like music often listen to it in the car But ppl who understand - don&#39;t!
Big Al adds:
Famous story:
The K&#246;ln Concert
TLDR:  They got the wrong piano and it had many flaws. [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14663</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Pigeons in espionage, from Humbert X.</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14662</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14662#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Mar 2026 19:37:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
	<category>Gyve Bones</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14662</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Rest Is History podcast episode
&#8216;If it became necessary immediately to discard every line and method of communications used on the front, except one, and it were left to me to select that one method, I should unhesitatingly choose the pigeons&#8217;, wrote Major General Fowler, Chief of Signals and Communications of the British Army, after [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14662</wfw:commentRSS>
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		<item>
		<title>Rates vs inflation, Larry Williams</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14661</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14661#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Mar 2026 05:03:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Larry Williams</category>
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
	<category>William Huggins</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14661</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As promised, rates drive inflation:

Nils Poertner writes:
With a bit of imagination, one could see that we may get to zero (or even negative short-term rates in the US)
Larry Williams adds:
Zero rates in Japan did not lead to inflation as most econ minds claimed it would.
William Huggins offers:
Richard Koo from Nomura explains why that was - [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14661</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Albert Einstein said, from Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14660</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14660#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2026 21:20:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Zubin Al Genubi</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14660</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The ordinary human being does not live long enough to draw any substantial benefit from his own experience. And no one, it seems, can benefit by the experiences of others. Being both a father and teacher, I know we can teach our children nothing&#8230;Each must learn its lesson anew.
&#8212;Albert Einstein, October 26, 1929
]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14660</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Data Center Capex – The Constraint Trade, from Carder Dimitroff</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14659</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14659#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2026 21:53:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Carder Dimitroff</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14659</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The US data center buildout looks increasingly supply-constrained, not because of capital, but because of infrastructure. Announced projects far exceed what can realistically be delivered on current timelines. New capacity requires a rare intersection of:

Proximity to internet hubs.
Reliable, large-scale power (plus generators/transformers with multi-year lead times).
Viable cooling and water.
State/local support in communities that are already [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14659</wfw:commentRSS>
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		<item>
		<title>Polymarket Fed Decisions and SPY Arbitrage, from Asindu Drileba</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14658</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14658#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Mar 2026 20:58:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Larry Williams</category>
	<category>William Huggins</category>
	<category>Asindu Drileba</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14658</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[FED interest rate decisions are often associated with the SPY.
1) Interest rate decrease &#8211;&#62; Increase in SPY
2) Interest rate increase &#8211;&#62; Decrease in SPY
Polymarket has a market for FED decisions. Could a combination of Long SPY &#38; Polymarket contracts (betting on rates increasing) provide some kind of arbitrage opportunity?
Larry Williams responds:
This not correct Interest rate [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14658</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Gold, from Peter C. Earle</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14657</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14657#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 28 Feb 2026 15:35:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Peter Earle</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14657</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Gold at $5,000 is not a rally. It&#8217;s a verdict.
These prices are not expressions of optimism about growth or productivity; they are expressions of doubt about currencies, governments, and institutions charged with preserving economic stability.
]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14657</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Statistics in astronomy: John Michell, from Humbert X.</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14656</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14656#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Feb 2026 18:10:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14656</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
I was not familiar with John Michell (1724&#8211;1793) until I read that he did a statistical analysis to show that double stars seen in the night sky were far too numerous to exist by chance and thus must be actual binary star systems.  He also essentially posited black holes - in the 18th century!
John [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14656</wfw:commentRSS>
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