<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><!-- generator="wordpress/2.0.4" -->
<rss version="0.92">
<channel>
	<title>Daily Speculations</title>
	<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress</link>
	<description>THE WEB SITE OF VICTOR NIEDERHOFFER: DEDICATED TO VALUE CREATION, BALLYHOO DEFLATION AND APPLYING THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD IN FINANCE</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 13 Oct 2026 21:23:43 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<docs>http://backend.userland.com/rss092</docs>
	<language>en</language>
	
	<item>
		<title>Writing it down, from Nils Poertner</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Young, more inexperienced specs would benefit from writing down all the observations, patterns, even subjective things they picked up and compare in the future (1wk, 1mo, etc), not just today but in particular this month. Instead of reading research paper no 3241.
William Huggins writes:
i recall a quarter century ago doc Steenbarger had done some private [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14751</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Walmart automation status, from Pamela Van Giessen</title>
		<description><![CDATA[For those who don&#8217;t read the WSJ, this article about Walmart&#8217;s automation status is interesting in terms of how long it takes to automate and the savings trade offs (bigger energy bills vs labor costs which may not be reduced though productivity may increase).
For Walmart, Replacing Humans With Robots Is a Multibillion-Dollar Struggle
]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14750</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Days of the week 2026, from Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<description><![CDATA[
Consistent with randomness.
Adam Grimes writes:
I agree that it looks consistent with sampling error. Did you run a permutation test? Would prefer that to assumptions of distributions.
&#34;Hey Claude, I would like to write a Python program to take a time series of daily net changes to the S&#38;P 500 and run a simulation in which the [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14749</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Victor Niederhoffer – The Market Speculator</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Speaking to Legends: #9 Victor Niederhoffer &#8211; The Market Speculator
July 01, 2020
Victor Niederhoffer is one of the most famous investors and a true pioneer. After rubbing shoulders with a few of the future Nobel Laureates at the University of Chicago, he started a trading firm and made $20 million from the starting capital of $50k [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14748</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Markets as buffers, Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<description><![CDATA[A quote from myself from the 2007 Spec Party on Vic&#39;s Central Park Rose  Garden talk which I remember vividly. &#34;Chairman espoused his theory of the markets as the mechanism that mediates between government and the the populace&#8230;that causes not only the obvious capital allocation but buffers the power of government to protect the [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14747</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Trend days, from Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<description><![CDATA[
Remember trend days? Recently trade has been, I wouldn&#39;t say  choppy, but with a lot of reversals. The legs are better than trend days in the past, point wise at least. Which led me to study trend days over the years. See how they cluster, and there have been none this year, at least [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14746</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Peter C. Earle on AI regulation</title>
		<description><![CDATA[AI Discovers DC
There is something strikingly familiar about the sudden enthusiasm of leading artificial intelligence companies for government oversight. The technology may be revolutionary, but the political economy surrounding it is not.
For more than a century, a pattern has recurred: an industry emerges with vigorous competition and rapid innovation. Successful firms establish advantages in capital, [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14745</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>End-of-quarter analysis, from Kora Reddy</title>
		<description><![CDATA[
Entry @ the last trading session of Q3 and liquidate before the New Year&#39;s Eve (HNYE), backtest study covers SPX from 1958 onward and excludes dividends.
Click to view detailed results.
]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14744</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Spec Party memories from August 14, 2007, from Jim Sogi</title>
		<description><![CDATA[This year&#39;s spec party had a different feel than other years, a more mature,  more focused, a more comfortable, intimate feel.  We had spec&#39;s from all around the world, India, Ireland, Scandinavia, Zurich, France, Italy,  London, Hawaii, California, Nevada, Tennessee, Georgia, Delaware making it a truly remarkable international diverse experience.  The [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14741</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>1873, from David Lilienfeld</title>
		<description><![CDATA[
There are four major depressions in the history of the United States, identified for our purposes by the years in which they started: 1837, 1873, 1930, and 2007. Each in sequence has been deemed &#34;The Great Depression.&#34; Then another one hits and the Great Depression doesn&#39;t seem so great anymore by comparison and the new [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14743</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Night returns, from Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The Disappearing Overnight Drift, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Liberty Street Economics, July 1, 2026
Overnight returns used to be quite regular the last 10 years but the edge has faded. Used to be .02% mean, but this year .003%. More changing cycles.
In a 2021 Liberty Street Economics post, we documented the &#8220;overnight drift&#8221;&#8212;a large, [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14742</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Motto to trade by, from Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Limit your losses, and gains and growth will take care of itself.
Asindu Drileba wonders:
Strategies for limiting losses?
1. Position sizing
2. OTM options
3. A friend of mine holds long VIX positions
Questions?
- What other strategies exist?
- What is best? 1, 2 or 3?
Zubin Al Genubi responds:
Those are all good strategies. Another way is to lower your expectation return [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14740</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Jobs analysis, from Bill Rafter</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Full-time employment has begun growing faster than part-time employment, reversing the multi-year pattern where part-time roles were rising faster. This shift is meaningful because:
&#8226; Full-time workers represent long-term payroll commitments (benefits, fixed hours, training).
&#8226; Part-time workers represent flexibility &#8212; employers rely on them when uncertain.
The long-term historical pattern is well documented:
&#8226; During recessions (early 1990s, [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14739</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Stock/Bond ratio, from Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I am re reading Practical Speculation and it&#39;s a gold mine that I didn&#39;t understand when I first  read it 20 years ago.  Vic and Laurel wrote in Prac Spec that some times are not good to buy stocks. &#34;An increase in the stock-bond ratio (the number of 30-year Treasury bonds it requires [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14738</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Constructal Flow, from Jim Sogi</title>
		<description><![CDATA[My friend Vic often mentioned Adrian Bejan&#39;s idea of the Constructal Law. Constructal flow is central a unifying principle of nature systems that results in the maximum efficiency on the transfer of energy. 
Vic said the most important thing is, &#34;What is the right question to ask?&#34;  Revisiting Bejan&#39;s books led me to ask, [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14737</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Niederhofferisms, from Asindu Drileba</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Beautiful article:
RIP Vic Niederhoffer, by Peter C. Earle
Unfortunately for me, I don&#39;t have a comprehensive understanding of all the Niederhofferisms. I understand hoodoos, flexions, LoBagolas, constructal numbers (not so much though I&#39;m familiar with Professor Adrian Bejan&#39;s work).
Could someone help elaborate these two?
&#34;agrarians&#34; &#38; &#34;constructal numbers&#34;
Andrew Aiken responds:
agrarians = believers in egalitarianism, &#34;the idea that [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14736</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>President of the Mess, from Paul O&#8217;Leary</title>
		<description><![CDATA[From Grok:
In Royal Navy (and closely related Commonwealth naval) formal mess dinner customs, the President of the Mess maintains order and may discipline diners for misbehaviour or rule breaches. Options typically include a warning, a fine (usually drinks, often port, paid after toasts), or ordering the person to leave. Removal is reserved for serious breaches, [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14735</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Herbert Dow, the Monopoly Breaker</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Herbert Dow, the Monopoly Breaker
By Dr. Burton W. Folsom
The Mackinac Center for Public Policy
Above all, Dow was stubborn and hated being bluffed by a bully. When Jacobsohn stormed out of his office, Dow continued to sell bromine to countries from England to Japan. Before long, the Bromkonvention went on a rampage: It poured bromine into [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14734</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>Appreciating The Chair</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Obituary: Victor Niederhoffer - December 10, 1943 &#8211; August 4, 2026
Alex Castaldo:
I think I was lucky to know Vic for so many years. He was very generous to me and although he liked to do things unconventionally sometimes, it was because he sincerely felt everyone should do things their own way and never just to [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14733</link>
			</item>
	<item>
		<title>RIP Vic Niederhoffer, by Peter C. Earle</title>
		<description><![CDATA[RIP Vic Niederhoffer
There are those who teach skills, methods, subjects, or even entire professions. And there are people who permanently change the way one thinks. Victor Niederhoffer was, for me, emphatically the latter.
I landed on a trading desk in the mid-1990s with no background in finance or business and a single economics course (which, ironically, [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14732</link>
			</item>
</channel>
</rss>
