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	<title>Daily Speculations</title>
	<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress</link>
	<description>THE WEB SITE OF VICTOR NIEDERHOFFER: DEDICATED TO VALUE CREATION, BALLYHOO DEFLATION AND APPLYING THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD IN FINANCE</description>
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		<title>Sentiment, from Steve Ellison</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Here is my three-year graph of AAII&#39;s sentiment survey. I ignore the neutral voters and calculate the bullish percentage as = Bullish / (Bullish + Bearish).

Sentiment as measured by this survey is middle-of-the-road, and has not had any extreme readings since the tariff tantrum in April 2025. The recent high was 63.7% on January 14, [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14695</link>
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		<title>Dr. Pete Earle provides an Austrian view of the AI buildout</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Artificial Intelligence, Real Misallocation
Artificial intelligence may well be the most important technological development of the coming decade-and that is exactly why the current capital surge around it warrants skepticism. History is littered with transformative innovations that were nonetheless disastrously overbuilt and mispriced in their early phases. Austrian Business Cycle Theory was never a children&#8217;s story [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14694</link>
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		<title>A dream group</title>
		<description><![CDATA[i   dreamed   that   galton,   sherlock   holmes,  and  gilbert  and  sullivan   attend   a    performance    of   mikado  together.
The Mikado 1966, D&#39;Oyly Carte Opera Company, Gilbert &#38; Sullivan
Vic&#39;s X/twitter feed
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		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14693</link>
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		<title>Study of Deception, from Sushil Kedia</title>
		<description><![CDATA[
The Chair has emphasized the value of studying and understanding deception endlessly, I believe. 
Now, if I wish to focus and devote my energies to be thoroughly studious about it, I urge my requests below are not misunderstood as a lazy desire, but an earnest and keen wish to be methodical about it.
What would the [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14692</link>
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		<title>ChatGPT moment for robotics?, from Humbert Q.</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#39;ve Covered Robots for Years. This One Is Different
From sorting chicken nuggets to screwing in lightbulbs, Eka&#8217;s robotic claw feels like we&#39;re approaching a ChatGPT moment for the physical world.
Dendi Suhubdy offers deep analysis:
I have put some thought into that:
The Perception&#8211;Planning Gap: What&#39;s Actually Hard About Visual AI in 2026
The thesis I want to defend [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14691</link>
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		<title>A tug-of-war within America’s deregulated power markets, from Humbert X.</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Today, we are witnessing a tug-of-war within America&#8217;s deregulated power markets. It&#39;s between those advocating for free-market operations and state policymakers intervening in those markets. In the process, consumers of all kinds are paying unnecessarily high prices. Let me explain:
In deregulated power markets, energy producers are theoretically dispatched in economic order based on their production [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14690</link>
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		<title>Consumer sentiment, from Steve Ellison</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The US consumer sentiment surveys have become completely politicized and useless for economic analysis. When Biden was president, respondents who preferred the Republicans said they felt very bad about the economy. After Trump was elected, they felt very optimistic. Respondents who preferred the Democrats did the opposite. And yet bad consumer sentiment as expressed in [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14689</link>
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		<title>The Strategy of Conflict, from Nils Poertner</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The Strategy of Conflict (pdf), by Thomas C. Schelling
At the beginning of the book he says that some ppl just thrive on conflicts  - the more the better basically. That is true within corporations as well, everywhere we can see it on world stage.
&#8211; THE RETARDED SCIENCE OF INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY
Among diverse theories of conflict&#8212;corresponding [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14688</link>
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		<title>Longtime List member Will Weaver on edges, from Steve Ellison</title>
		<description><![CDATA[What Makes a Trading Strategy Work?
In quant trading finding an alpha is not enough.
What is the edge you have that others do not?
A backtest is not the hard part.
The hard part is explaining why the opportunity exists, why others have not competed it away, and why it should continue to exist in the future.
In practice, [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14687</link>
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		<title>How to account on the principle of ever changing cycles?, from Asindu Drileba</title>
		<description><![CDATA[This principle outlines the idea that markets change their behaviour. For example:
- the 13th business day of the month made money for 5 years ( lost for some days in the year, but overall ended the year profitable)
then the market changes and
- the same 13th business day of the month loses money for 5 years [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14686</link>
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		<title>More on Sun Tzu, from Stefan Jovanovich</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Since Americans have been messing with the rest of the world ever since 1775 (our first act of rebellion was to invade Quebec), could we begin looking for historical parallels from our own history before we get to the Turning Points view?  The first reference to The Art of War in U.S. military literature [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14685</link>
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		<title>The Art of War by Sun Tzu, from Q. Humbert (Updated)</title>
		<description><![CDATA[
Good book to re-read. Are all those crisis meetings are just choreography?  In order to &#34;sell&#34; something unpopular (a war) to the managed masses in the West (or whatever system there is in Iran respectively). Humanitarian aid talks often precede wars as well.
Jeffrey Hirsch offers:
Art of the Deal. Seasonality edition
Nils Poertner responds:
Top notch analysis! [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14682</link>
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		<title>Ellen Langer experiment, from Q. Humbert</title>
		<description><![CDATA[2014 NYT reports about the Professor Ellen Langer experiment on how the mindset affects aging (or can reverse it).
Back in the 1980s, Senior citizens (some of them on crutches) were invited into a hotel with furniture /music reminding them at the time they were young - and they weren&#39;t allowed to speak about illnesses or [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14684</link>
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		<title>Podcast series on Trafalgar, from Big Al</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The Royal Navy is one of the themes of the list, not least because of the Chair&#39;s love of the Aubrey-Maturin novels by Patrick O&#39;Brian.
I have posted about a podcast I enjoy, The Rest Is History, and they did a nice three-parter on the Battle of Trafalgar.  The newest information for me was the [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14683</link>
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		<title>How Costly Is Permitting in Housing Development?, from Humbert Z.</title>
		<description><![CDATA[How Costly Is Permitting in Housing Development?
Evan Soltas, Jonathan Gruber
February 2026
Permitting costs are widely cited, but little analyzed, as a key burden on housing development in leading U.S. cities. We measure them using an implicit market for &#8220;ready-to-issue&#8221; permits in Los Angeles, where landowners can prepay permitting costs and sell pre-approved land to developers at [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14679</link>
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		<title>What made America great, from Larry Williams</title>
		<description><![CDATA[&#34;While you may make many mistakes,&#34; J. P. Morgan&#39;s father advised his son,&#34;never be a bear on your country or you will surely go broke.&#34;
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		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14681</link>
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		<title>What can&#8217;t happen, from Steve Ellison</title>
		<description><![CDATA[In 2007 some pairs trades moved 25 standard deviations from their historical norms. If markets were truly random walks, such events would have had miniscule probabilities of ever occurring even had the stock market been in existence since the Big Bang.
As Augustin Lebron said in his excellent book The Laws of Trading, the more market [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14680</link>
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		<title>Two new trends, from X. Humbert</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Two new trends will likely emerge from the Iranian caper: renewable energy and nuclear power.  Smart money will aggressively pursue renewable energy assets (including derivatives). Sovereigns will likely pursue nuclear power assets if they can afford the price tags.
Humbert A. responds:
An interesting thesis,  The Economist had an interesting article in their 3/21/26 edition [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14678</link>
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		<title>The &#8220;attention economy&#8221;, from D. Humbert</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Media (&#34;attention economy&#34;) marginalizes positive stories of ordinary people building solutions from the ground up. That is why trading + media exposure during the day needs to be balanced in off hours to see that  ((helping the neighbour, inviting to parties, gardening, anything that gives us joy). And this will be even more important [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14677</link>
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		<title>What would a custom CPI look like?, from Asindu Drileba</title>
		<description><![CDATA[I was thinking of designing a custom Consumer Price Index:
Oil
Copper
Wheat
Sugar
Anything important missing? or something that needs to be removed? My aim was to add something that is actually used everyday by ordinary people around the world.
Larry Williams asks:
Why? There are several very good ones already
https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002, Michael F. Bryan, and Brent H. Meyer
The Sticky Price Consumer [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14676</link>
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