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	<title>Daily Speculations</title>
	<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress</link>
	<description>THE WEB SITE OF VICTOR NIEDERHOFFER: DEDICATED TO VALUE CREATION, BALLYHOO DEFLATION AND APPLYING THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD IN FINANCE</description>
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		<title>The American Revolution Redefined Freedom Itself, by Peter C. Earle</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The American Revolution Redefined Freedom Itself
When the Continental Congress approved the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776, its immediate purpose was practical: to justify severing ties with Great Britain and explain to audiences both foreign and domestic why rebellion had become necessary. Yet the document&#8217;s historical importance extended far beyond the thirteen colonies. The [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14717</link>
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		<title>Holiday Ideas for Americans, from U. S. Humbert</title>
		<description><![CDATA[A new Cato Institute/Morning Consult survey finds that 46 percent of Americans don&#39;t know what Saturday commemorates.
Idea 1: Lead a family event where the Declaration of Independence is read in its entirety.
For the fuller, messier version of the origin story, see &#34;The &#39;Two Ships&#39; Theory of American History&#34; in the August Atlantic &#8212; James Traub&#39;s [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14716</link>
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		<title>The Cost of Chasing Zero, from V. Humbert</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The Trump administration is revising the radiation rules for commercial nuclear power. Headlines suggest a safety rollback. The reality is closer to retiring a rule that outlived its purpose. The savings may prove modest; the principle at stake is whether regulation should require spending to address risks too small to measure.
The rule is ALARA &#8212; [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14715</link>
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		<title>Best Patrick O&#8217;Brian entry point?, Asindu Drileba</title>
		<description><![CDATA[
I need your advice. What is the best entry point for his work?
Paolo Pezzutti responds:
No doubt. Master and Commander.
Big Al adds:
Yes, it&#39;s a series, and the first volume is Master &#38; Commander.
A fascinating biography of a man who was some of the inspiration for O&#39;Brian&#39;s writing:
Cochrane: Britannia&#39;s Sea Wolf
]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14714</link>
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		<title>Money and the Meaning of Life, from Humbert P.</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Money and the Meaning of Life, by Jacob Needleman
Needleman shows how money slowly began to haunt us, from the invention of coins in Biblical times (when money was created to rescue the community good, not for self gain), through its hypnotic appeal in our money-obsessed era. This is a remarkable book that combines myth and [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14713</link>
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		<title>World’s First Net-Worth Trillionaire Shows Us How Markets Price the Future, by Dr. Peter Earle</title>
		<description><![CDATA[World&#8217;s First Net-Worth Trillionaire Shows Us How Markets Price the Future
This is where capital structure becomes crucial. Musk&#8217;s companies have relied heavily on equity financing rather than debt, for good reason. Debt requires fixed repayment obligations on a schedule, making it more suitable for stable and predictable enterprises. Equity is more adaptable. If projects fail [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14712</link>
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		<title>The Lost World of the Kalahari, from Nils Poertner</title>
		<description><![CDATA[
In The Lost World of the Kalahari, Laurens van der Post writes about living among the Bushmen of the Kalahari Desert and describes how shocked they were that he couldn&#8217;t hear the stars.
At first they thought he must be joking or lying. When they realized he really couldn&#8217;t hear the stars, they concluded he must [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14711</link>
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		<title>Orange Is the New Green, from Humbert Z.</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The move from oil to electricity is driven by cost, risk, and security, not idealism&#8212;and it is redirecting where capital flows.
The energy transition is sold as a moral cause. It is really a trade. Economics, geopolitics, and risk are the forces that move capital, and the irony is that the biggest accelerants were never meant [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14709</link>
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		<title>The best intuition for convexity, from Asindu Drileba</title>
		<description><![CDATA[A convex function can be thought of as one where the output (in this case prices) accelerates with time. Case study of NVIDIA stock:
1999 - $0.04 (ipo price)
2022 - $14.64 (366x gain, 23 year holding period)
2026 - $211 (5,275x gain, 4 years  extra holding period)
Total overview:
27 year holding period
$1 turns to $5,275
14.8% of the [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14708</link>
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		<title>Where in the world is Aubrey Niederhoffer?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[A 19-year-old Thiel fellow just raised $7.3 million to build an African &#8216;super app&#8217;

If he hadn&#8217;t dropped out, Aubrey Niederhoffer would be nearing the end of his sophomore year at UC Berkeley. Instead, the 19-year-old from the New York area is living in Lagos, where he just launched his food delivery app, Swoop. The 28-person [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14707</link>
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		<title>Jane Street AI training data center, from Humbert X.</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Dwarkesh Goes Inside Jane Street&#39;s Latest AI Data Center (video)
Twenty years ago, our &#34;cluster&#34; was just 6 Dells stacked on the floor of our office. Today, come tour our new Texas datacenter: 4,032 GPUs, liquid cooled.
Asindu Drileba writes:
Their hiring is surprisingly very meritocratic,  if you can solve any of their monthly puzzles, they will [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14706</link>
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		<title>Dr. Peter Earle: Can Stock Indexes Afford to Ignore SpaceX?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Can Stock Indexes Afford to Ignore SpaceX?
Another side to the argument deserves more scrutiny than it receives amid enthusiasm for technological innovation and market capitalization milestones. Institutional incentives have changed radically since index inclusion became a major event. And the mechanism by which being a component of a stock index has become important is beyond [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14705</link>
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		<title>Rule of 16, from Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The 1-Day Expected Move calculation is the practical application of the &#34;Rule of 16&#34; described by Euan Sinclair and other volatility traders.
The Rule of 16 is a mathematical heuristic used to convert annualized implied volatility (the number you see on a quote screen, like 16%) into a daily expected move. The rule is derived from [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14704</link>
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		<title>Opinion - After the Crude Premium: Pricing the Product Shock, from Humbert Z.</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The market spent three months pricing the barrel. The next 90 to 180 days will be decided by the products refined from it.
Crude shock is now understood; product shock is not. Since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attention has shifted to crude oil. Brent peaked at roughly $138 in early April and [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14703</link>
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		<title>Cy Young&#8217;s Rules, from Stefan Jovanovich</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Cy Young&#39;s Rules For Pitching Success
1. Pitchers, like poets, are born, not made.
2. Cultivate good habits: Let liquor severely alone, fight shy of cigarettes and be moderate in indulgence of tobacco, coffee and tea. A player should try to get along without any stimulants at all. Water, pure cool water is good enough for any [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14701</link>
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		<title>Food prices in UK (or Europe), from Nils Poertner</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Looking at longer dated charts (eg. Wheat, Oil etc&#8230;) and knowing how easily every new government in the UK will yield to public moods makes me think. (There were calls by politicians to cap food prices.) Maybe not immediately relevant, but perhaps later this year or next.
Call for food price caps &#8216;completely preposterous&#8217;, says M&#38;S [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14700</link>
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		<title>Book reccy, from Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Who We Are and How We Got Here: Ancient DNA and the New Science of the Human Past, by David Reich 
Highly recommended. Turns ancient history on its head. Absolutely fascinating.

Big Al adds:
He does an interesting quick summary of current paleogenetics:
Your ancestors aren&#39;t who you think they are &#124; David Reich
Over the last 15 years, [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14699</link>
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		<title>Opinion: Global LNG After Ras Laffan, from Humbert X.</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Ras Laffan repriced LNG&#8217;s geopolitical risk premium, and the market structure that existed through 2025 can no longer be assumed.
On March 18 and 19, 2026, Iranian missile and drone strikes on QatarEnergy&#8217;s Ras Laffan Industrial City damaged two of fourteen LNG trains and one of two gas-to-liquids facilities. The result is the largest single supply [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14698</link>
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		<title>List member Duncan Coker&#8217;s music</title>
		<description><![CDATA[
Late bloomer: Boulder singer-songwriter Duncan Coker drops long-awaited debut
Longtime Boulder singer-songwriter Duncan Coker has been honing his craft ever since he picked up his first guitar as a New Jersey teenager four decades ago. It was a Fender Squier, and it opened the door to a love for performing that&#8217;s going strong to this day.
After [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14697</link>
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		<title>A deck of cards, from Jeff Watson</title>
		<description><![CDATA[
A standard deck of cards contains 52! combinations after riffle shuffling at least 7 times to ensure randomness. Expressed as a number, there are 8.06&#215;10^67 total combinations. To put this in perspective, there are  4.37&#215;10^17 seconds since the big bang. It is estimated there are 5&#215;10^18 grains of sand and 10^50 atoms on earth. [...]]]></description>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14696</link>
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