Daily Speculations

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The Chairman
Victor Niederhoffer

4/17/2005
Inflows and Outflows

An interesting thing to study are the inflows and outflows to the market. Trim Tabs does a good job of looking at the money coming in from mutual funds, corporate buybacks, insider transactions, paychecks and so on.

A predicted inflow comes in on Fridays at ends of months, and a predicted outflow accompanied by a feeling of revulsion presumably comes around April 15.

Rudy Hauser keeps track of other predicted outflows vis-a-vis money leaving checking accounts, especially seasonally (e.g., before December)

Some anecdotal counting of S&P moves associated with these flows starts with April 15, 2000.

Date, day of weekMove that week Move that day Move next dayMove next week
4/14/00 (F)-11%-6%4% 8%
4/15/02 (M)-2%-1%2.5% 1%
4/15/04 (Th)-1%-0.5%0.0 0.5%
4/15/99 (Th)-2%-1%-1% 3%

On other days of payment to the redistributors, there were no significant declines going back to the year 1990.

 

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