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Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, ballyhoo deflation, value creation, and laughter. A forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place |
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Victor Niederhoffer
4/17/2005
Inflows and Outflows
An interesting thing to study are the inflows and outflows to the market. Trim Tabs does a good job of looking at the money coming in from mutual funds, corporate buybacks, insider transactions, paychecks and so on.
A predicted inflow comes in on Fridays at ends of months, and a predicted outflow accompanied by a feeling of revulsion presumably comes around April 15.
Rudy Hauser keeps track of other predicted outflows vis-a-vis money leaving checking accounts, especially seasonally (e.g., before December)
Some anecdotal counting of S&P moves associated with these flows starts with April 15, 2000.
| Date, day of week | Move that week | Move that day | Move next day | Move next week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/14/00 (F) | -11% | -6% | 4% | 8% |
| 4/15/02 (M) | -2% | -1% | 2.5% | 1% |
| 4/15/04 (Th) | -1% | -0.5% | 0.0 | 0.5% |
| 4/15/99 (Th) | -2% | -1% | -1% | 3% |
On other days of payment to the redistributors, there were no significant declines going back to the year 1990.