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Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner
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Victor Niederhoffer: Nobody Asked Me, But...
- When a hedge firm stops reporting monthly results to the performance
rating services, chances are the returns were much below
their norm. And this was the first tip that all was not well with predictions
made in the Gladwell article.
- The lessons that one gains from
shuffleboard -- particularly about using the block, i.e., the
St. Pete and the Tampa, and going for the numbers only at the end of a frame
when the predictions concerning the
hammer's moves are much better -- reminds me of proper
strategy for the game of seeking market returns. After
hitting a number, a block is always the best strategy.
- The market has not shown a decline for
an extended period, and this should have put the trend
followers back on the wrong leg again.
- The trend following firms have lost
from 4% to 20% in January 2005, and this seems like a cruel
blow after they were crowing about their great comeback in
2004. Such letdowns are often the case in games, and life.
A History of the Businessman by Miriam Beard is one of the best reads I have had in recent months. Section headings include:
“The Heritage of Antiquity,” “The Patrician City Rulers,”
“The Monopolists,” “The Individualist,” “The Big
Businessman.” I loved the chapters on the merchants of
Venice, the Dutch business empire, swordsmen and salesmen of
the Homeric Age, Bourgeois and Puritans in France and how
the American Revolution blazed a way for the manufacturer.
- The hearings on painkillers coming up
in next two weeks should lead to a communitarian solution
that will appear to slap the wrists of Big Pharma while
precluding entry and showing the regulators have big