Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

 

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8/3/04
Victor Niederhoffer: No one asked me but...

  1. The dollar euro at 120 and yen dollar at 110 are crucial round numbers that are attractors within their own countries and signalers with respect to other countries.
  2. With many good stocks such as Citibank selling at 10 times earnings, versus a 10 year interest yield of 4.5%, the idea that stocks are at too high a p/e must be attributable more to hope and hatred and the inability to understand that gentlemen prefer growth than any rational revulsion.
  3. The swings in the b und and sp last week from 45 day or 150 day lows, to double digit day highs seems to be occur with inordinate frequency especially during the summer and also during other occasions.
  4. The DAX is a bell weather for the us markets, but it is very hard to quantify same as the relations are delayed and distorted.
  5. Stocks go thru spells of style where if you buy anything in style you make money and if you buy anything out of style you lose.
  6. It is good to quit on a winning note. And now that I have covered my short that was sparked with extra quantity by the pres of the old spec club, I should never short stocks again because I am unduly nervous about fitting the 1.5 million a century drift even when involved with a company that's run by one with pure sanctimony.
  7. Gold and oil show key predictive correlations with other markets, but the problem is that whenever you pin it down, they're ready to change. What else is new?
  8. Survival analysis is the most undertaught and underused technique relative to its utility in statistics and investment classes.
  9. Nigel Davies is proving that chess skills are transferable for some to the world of investments and has put on some 30 trades for me, and as far as I know he has not lost on one of them. 1
  10. Al my former students must be doing very well these days as the market seems to be employing level 1 deceptions and they are all geared for that.
  11. When a man wears Bermudas to a musical, it is best to sit far away from him and he is likely to have a deep laugh and be most uninhibited. and this is related to the great beginning of Master and Commander where Maturin challenges Aubrey to a duel because Aubrey's exuberance does not preclude his beating to the music out loud.
  12. All men admire a woman who dances well and secretly figure her talents are transferable.