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10/13/2005
Briefly Speaking: Market Moves, by Victor Niederhoffer

  1. The market during the last 10 months has gone from a daily close below 1200 to a daily close above 1200 on six separate occasions. It is hard to test whether this is random or not.
  2. Of the 220 European stock market indexes listed on my screen, all are up. Of the 85 North American and South American markets on my screen, all except Jamaica and the U.S. are up. Among the 85 Asian markets, the only decliners are China, Taiwan and Malaysia. Ten of the 20 U.S. market indices are up.
  3. The S&P has gone down open to close eight days in a row, and is now down a ninth.
  4. It is common to think that high oil prices are associated with low stock prices. However, the move up to $70 oil was in conjunction with S&P well above 1200 and the recent move to five-month lows in oil circa $60 is in conjunction with the current S&P low. More microscopic testing confirms the relation.
  5. Thomson projects third-quarter earnings comparisons for the S&P to be up 15%. The yearly estimated earnings, according to a Zacks survey based on eight estimates, is $73.50 a share for 2005 and $78.40 for year-end 2006, based on diluted EPS from continuing operations.

Tom Ryan adds:

Word of the day -- erythrism: unusual red pigmentation. Example: Since the start of October the market has seemingly developed a severe case of erythrism on my quote screen.

Barry Gitarts remarks:

Since September the S&P has gone lower on a weekly basis. Over the same period the bottom-up earnings estimate for the index has gone higher on a weekly basis.

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