Daily Speculations The Web Site of  Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

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The Chairman
Victor Niederhoffer

06/09/2004
Market Sins

It's always good to look at one's own sins. And the tales of all the promoters and mystics and fake fundists on the list inspires me to heal myself. Some of my greatest faults:

1. Tendency to reverse big moves to the exclusion of rhyme or reason.

2. Getting in over one's head. size of positions so great that small move in market is enough to force me to capitulate.

3. Tendency to add onto positions as they go against me thereby exacerbating and hastening the problem of gambler's ruin.

4. Tendency to abnegate all qualitative evidence thereby enabling those with superior insight and info to gain the upper hand.

5. Tendency to inflexibility. Much too fixed in methods thereby letting ever-changing cycles do me in. Example of Capt. Jack Aubrey, hero of the Patrick O'Brian novels, always changing battle plans in the midst of battle a role to emulate.

6. Too many spastic trades with just one hole to escape to triggered by a random pattern or insight without benefit of reflection.

7. Not a good plan that overrides everything thereby subjecting myself to ephemeral tactics when strategy should be in the fore.

8. Tendency to give away the keys to the kingdom and then not change them, thereby insuring everyone's demise.

9. Extreme gullibility and willingness to give anyone the benefit of the doubt inviting countless fakers into the inner fold including a rick who was previously locked up for impersonating doctors and pilots.

10. Tremendous numbers about expectations but very little about the proper size of positions based on distributions with particular tendency to variations and how far the darn thing has moved against me.

11. Maintaining a large presence in markets making it easy for the mistress to profit sufficiently to stop in her tracks and take my chips before moving to her previous happy state and path.

12. Taking small profits and being willing at any time to take large losses.

Yes, these thoughts are inspired by talk of great fundists giving away their secrets and wild men throwing things at their employees. At least when i go down, I do so with dignity and I never boast about my successes, especially when they're nonexistent.