The Chairman Victor Niederhoffer Home About Victor Niederhoffer

7/28/04
12 thoughts sparked by the Euro near 1.20

1. It is terrible to contemplate the Euro near the round number of 1.20 vis a vis my theory that the foreign exchange market always moves against the public.
2. The Sage's constantly bearish view about the US economy and equities.
3. The recent high in the Euro of 1.2450 and what this means as to what must have happened to certain heroes of the terrapinal world, once again this year.
4. The general fate that inevitably must devolve to all who follow fixed inflexible systems.
5. The retribution that always follows those who are excessively arrogant and use homespun wisdom to invest in markets without benefit of an economic or empirical foundation.
6. Those who believe that past success is more than loosely tied to future success,
7. Except on the negative side, as a tendency to pay excessive vig is guaranteed to lead to consistency of performance, albeit in the undesired (except by the broker) direction.
8. Many similar lapses and tendencies to hubris and reaches beyond ones grasp that we are all too prone to fall into ourselves.
9. The great relevance and similarity of the Sage's views to a certain highly esteemed duo on our list hailing from very fair climates.
10. The market's tendency during the summer to cause excessive havoc and to overshoot.
11. The near unanimity at the beginning of this year among the public and those polled by banks that the best trade in the world was to speculate against the dollar.
12. The tendency of those good players in a poker game to take all one's chips through bluffing when they sense your base of operations is ill supported.